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O-X Event, 2 regulars or 1 Special?

PixiestickzPixiestickz
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edited February 21, 2017 in General Chat
I saw this question flying around earlier on reddit, so I decided to give my input there and here, especially considering how I didn't find it addressed here.
So when we look at the announcements, we can see that there are 61 items in the normal box and 52 in the special with only one Carasek Bag in each.

Carasek's Bag in Normal box - 1/61 (1.6%~)
Carasek's Bag in Special box - 1/52 (1.9%~)

So by getting two Normal boxes instead of one:

Carasek's Bag in Normal box - 2/61 (3.2%~)
Carasek's Bag in Special box - 1/52 (1.9%~).

I must emphasize that this is only practical if no items within the boxes are weighted, which I'm incline to believe they are, granted I have no proof of it. Those are the numbers, do with them as you wish.

Comments

  • LidrsterLidrster
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    I must emphasize that this is only practical if no items within the boxes are weighted, which I'm incline to believe they are, granted I have no proof of it.
    I think the fact that the market isn't flooded with Carasek's bag is a good enough proof tho :)
    With these rates, almost everyone would get a bag after a couple days of quizz spamming (except RNG-cursed players)

  • CrimsCrims
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    Lidrster wrote: »
    I must emphasize that this is only practical if no items within the boxes are weighted, which I'm incline to believe they are, granted I have no proof of it.
    I think the fact that the market isn't flooded with Carasek's bag is a good enough proof tho :)
    With these rates, almost everyone would get a bag after a couple days of quizz spamming (except RNG-cursed players)

    Like me. TT_TT
  • OrkaneOrkane
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    edited February 21, 2017

    Carasek's Bag in Normal box - 1/61 (1.6%~)
    Carasek's Bag in Special box - 1/52 (1.9%~)

    So by getting two Normal boxes instead of one:

    Carasek's Bag in Normal box - 2/61 (3.2%~)
    Carasek's Bag in Special box - 1/52 (1.9%~).

    This isn't how probability works. If it were, then getting 61 bags would mean a 61/61 i.e. 100% chance of acquiring the bag*. When in truth, no number of attempts guarantees success for a random chance. The chance of at least one success with two boxes is 1 - (1 - 1/61)^2 : 121/3721 rather than 2/61. The difference is actually pretty minor, but it's worth noting.

    *I know 1/61 isn't the actual rate, but the principle is the same.
    AichannPixiestickzSylviaWolfe
  • CrimsCrims
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    Soooooo...basically just get normal boxes?
  • OrkaneOrkane
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    edited February 21, 2017
    Gaea wrote: »
    Soooooo...basically just get normal boxes?

    The point of this thread is to show that the odds are weighted. Without knowing the weighting, it's impossible to say whether or not that's best.
    SylviaWolfe
  • CrimsCrims
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    Which is the better box though? I've been hoarding coupons.
  • GretaGreta
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    Gaea wrote: »
    Which is the better box though? I've been hoarding coupons.

    Same. I'm still not sure which box to buy after i'll get satisfied with amount of coupons i get.
  • OrkaneOrkane
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    edited February 21, 2017
    Gaea wrote: »
    Which is the better box though? I've been hoarding coupons.

    It's impossible to say. Just go with your gut, unless you feel like organising enough players together to determine the odds by experiment.
  • GretaGreta
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    I probably gonna go with Special ones. There's less junk items in there. I'm full of potions and tailoring materials anyway.
  • SherriSherri
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    edited February 21, 2017
    I've been trying special myself and I have yet to get that bag. Same goes to my friend. We've gotten nothing but stupid gems. :/
  • PixiestickzPixiestickz
    Mabinogi Rep: 305
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    Orkane wrote: »
    This isn't how probability works. If it were, then getting 61 bags would mean a 61/61 i.e. 100% chance of acquiring the bag*. When in truth, no number of attempts guarantees success for a random chance. The chance of at least one success with two boxes is 1 - (1 - 1/61)^2 : 121/3721 rather than 2/61. The difference is actually pretty minor, but it's worth noting.

    *I know 1/61 isn't the actual rate, but the principle is the same.

    This is a great point proven. Probability always trips me, no wonder I did bad in statistics class KEK.

  • CrimsCrims
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    I have enough gems, I don't need more. :(
    Sherri
  • SherriSherri
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    edited February 21, 2017
    Well.. if anybody is on Mari and wants Caravan Joe Chairs, I guess I'm selling some. Because that's all I've gotten for a while now. qq
  • CrimsCrims
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    I don't want to sit with Joe. O_o;;;
  • SherriSherri
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    Gaea wrote: »
    I don't want to sit with Joe. O_o;;;

    LOL - well, the tea table one isn't that bad. You make him work for you and such. xP
  • KororeKorore
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    @Gaea

    But Joe wants to sit with you....
  • CrimsCrims
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    Korore wrote: »
    @Gaea

    But Joe wants to sit with you....

    1240274778297.gif
    Opalthira
  • FoolieCooleFoolieCoole
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    I feel like chances of getting a bag are kind if like your chances of getting a soundbox from barri advanced. You might get it on your first try...but chances are you won't.
  • SenyuniSenyuni
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    I always get the special boxes since the norms always drop crap for me :S
    I think if anything ill just find a seller for the bag instead of doing the event,,,
  • CrimsCrims
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    I have quit this event, too much junk and the only reason why I played it was for a chance at a carasek bag which could land me 15m. Welp after several days and no bag I am done. Next event please. Thanks.
    AndrewGRXiokun