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Pixiestickz

Mabinogi Rep: 305

Posts: 3

Member
I saw this question flying around earlier on reddit, so I decided to give my input there and here, especially considering how I didn't find it addressed here.

So when we look at the announcements, we can see that there are 61 items in the normal box and 52 in the special with only one Carasek Bag in each.

Carasek's Bag in Normal box - 1/61 (1.6%~)

Carasek's Bag in Special box - 1/52 (1.9%~)

So by getting two Normal boxes instead of one:

Carasek's Bag in Normal box - 2/61 (3.2%~)

Carasek's Bag in Special box - 1/52 (1.9%~).

I must emphasize that this is only practical if no items within the boxes are weighted, which I'm incline to believe they are, granted I have no proof of it. Those are the numbers, do with them as you wish.

So when we look at the announcements, we can see that there are 61 items in the normal box and 52 in the special with only one Carasek Bag in each.

Carasek's Bag in Normal box - 1/61 (1.6%~)

Carasek's Bag in Special box - 1/52 (1.9%~)

So by getting two Normal boxes instead of one:

Carasek's Bag in Normal box - 2/61 (3.2%~)

Carasek's Bag in Special box - 1/52 (1.9%~).

I must emphasize that this is only practical if no items within the boxes are weighted, which I'm incline to believe they are, granted I have no proof of it. Those are the numbers, do with them as you wish.

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## Comments

With these rates, almost everyone would get a bag after a couple days of quizz spamming (except RNG-cursed players)

Like me. TT_TT

This isn't how probability works. If it were, then getting 61 bags would mean a 61/61 i.e. 100% chance of acquiring the bag*. When in truth, no number of attempts guarantees success for a random chance. The chance of at least one success with two boxes is 1 - (1 - 1/61)^2 : 121/3721 rather than 2/61. The difference is actually pretty minor, but it's worth noting.

*I know 1/61 isn't the actual rate, but the principle is the same.

The point of this thread is to show that the odds

areweighted. Without knowing the weighting, it's impossible to say whether or not that's best.Same. I'm still not sure which box to buy after i'll get satisfied with amount of coupons i get.

It's impossible to say. Just go with your gut, unless you feel like organising enough players together to determine the odds by experiment.

This is a great point proven. Probability always trips me, no wonder I did bad in statistics class KEK.

LOL - well, the tea table one isn't that bad. You make him work for you and such. xP

But Joe wants to sit with you....

I think if anything ill just find a seller for the bag instead of doing the event,,,