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Refined plus and credne reforge tool are the two reforges that have the highest chance to rank up right now. (I don't have enough experience with amazing tool to speak for it)
It can give transformation lines (paladin, dark knight, beast, demigod) if the item you are reforging is not at rank 1 already.
Otherwise you can reroll with refined plus without those popping out.
I don't have the percentages you are looking for, but I have ranked up most of my gear with refined and refined plus and they usually get to rank 1 within 30. A few times they even ranked up back to back letting me finish in 2.
The best way to get a piece of gear to rank 1 is to use crednes to get the lines first and hope it ranks up in the process, then use refined till rank 1. After that it's really up to you if you want to spend more to avoid the transformation lines or not.
And lastly a word of warning, you will only see visible results during reforge rate events.
Don't try to rank outside events.
Don't try to rank using fine reforges.
As for your Portia question, the transportation speed line will be gone upon use. The only tool that will give that line is the commerce reforging tool, any other will only serve as rank up or reroll.
There is no reforge that will let you keep the same line for sure after use, but the commerce reforging tool will guaranteed a transport speed line.