So I was looking over the drop list for the 2 event boxes for the quiz show and it seems the special box has unique rewards, so I was wondering if that was the only difference between the two or if there are adjusted odds for rare items with the special box? Since its so rare its hard to say from only one persons experience, but if anyone who has obtained a bag can remember what box they got it from it could get us closer to knowing which is better to go for to get the Carasek's Bag.
My reasoning here is that the normal box is only 10 tickets while the special is 20. If the only difference is the drop pools then that means that the normal box would actually be the best one if you don't care about the unique drops in the special box. On the other hand, if that's not the only difference and the special box has a higher chance to drop the bag then the normal box, it might be worth spending twice the tickets per box if the change in drop rate makes up for the cost increase.
Personally, that bag is the only item in any of the currently running events that I really care about. Training seals would be nice, but I haven't even gotten one, and iv been going on the assumption that the special box is better until recently.
Something else to be mindful of is that if the number of one kind of box a person opened is disproportionate to the number of the other kind of box, it will make the odds appear skewed when they actually aren't. Say you only opened 10 normals and 100 specials, its obviously going to be more likely for you to get it in specials at that point even if the drop rate is the same.
There are also more items in the normal box by 9. If the drop rates are the same, that would give the special box a slightly higher chance to drop the bag, but I don't think it would be enough to make up for the cost doubling.
I personally dont find this game worth it and here is why i came back to all this new stuff but at the end of the day its the same mabinogi and you will end up coming to the same point (as in me) that you did before you quit etc. i would not recommend playing this game everyday religiously like nexon try's to make you with all theses log in afk events and constant money grab sales i thought i was going to come back to a better game after 2 years a pretty much nothing changed and i dont mean this in a good way thus is merely my observation and feeling son the matter.
There are plenty of things to do, particularly for a new player. But playing it in smaller chunks will pad out how much content you'd go through, long enough for new content to come up. And if you come back for new updates it means that something in there was worth it enough for you to come back and try it. Otherwise you'd have left and never looked back.