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Carasek's Bag from event boxes

BlortadBlortad
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edited September 4, 2018 in General Chat
So I was looking over the drop list for the 2 event boxes for the quiz show and it seems the special box has unique rewards, so I was wondering if that was the only difference between the two or if there are adjusted odds for rare items with the special box? Since its so rare its hard to say from only one persons experience, but if anyone who has obtained a bag can remember what box they got it from it could get us closer to knowing which is better to go for to get the Carasek's Bag.

My reasoning here is that the normal box is only 10 tickets while the special is 20. If the only difference is the drop pools then that means that the normal box would actually be the best one if you don't care about the unique drops in the special box. On the other hand, if that's not the only difference and the special box has a higher chance to drop the bag then the normal box, it might be worth spending twice the tickets per box if the change in drop rate makes up for the cost increase.

Personally, that bag is the only item in any of the currently running events that I really care about. Training seals would be nice, but I haven't even gotten one, and iv been going on the assumption that the special box is better until recently.

Something else to be mindful of is that if the number of one kind of box a person opened is disproportionate to the number of the other kind of box, it will make the odds appear skewed when they actually aren't. Say you only opened 10 normals and 100 specials, its obviously going to be more likely for you to get it in specials at that point even if the drop rate is the same.

There are also more items in the normal box by 9. If the drop rates are the same, that would give the special box a slightly higher chance to drop the bag, but I don't think it would be enough to make up for the cost doubling.
offwithyourheads

Comments

  • Gaby5011Gaby5011
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    Yeah it pisses me off when an event has two different boxes like that... At least if we got the percentage it would make this game much more enjoyable. At least for events with two boxed like that. I'm currently sitting at 641 tickets cause I'm not sure which box to buy.
  • GretaGreta
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    edited September 5, 2018
    I remember opening like 200 special ones and opened so much normal ones too. And nothing. Got ton of crappy outfits an such, and like 4 or so Joe training seals.
  • ShouKShouK
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    I know someone got it from normal box. And after the quiz ended (which gives you the normal box) usually each round 1 person claimed they got it. Seeing the increasing amount of carasek bag in AH, those people might not be lying. All in all it just depends on your luck...

    I found it funny how the price of carasek bag didn't drop despite having the event though. I got my carasek bag for 12m when there's a gacha that dropped it back before AH exist. I know people said AH is a good thing, but AH inflates the price of almost everything...
  • HellkaizerHellkaizer
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    ShouK wrote: »
    I know someone got it from normal box. And after the quiz ended (which gives you the normal box) usually each round 1 person claimed they got it. Seeing the increasing amount of carasek bag in AH, those people might not be lying. All in all it just depends on your luck...

    I found it funny how the price of carasek bag didn't drop despite having the event though. I got my carasek bag for 12m when there's a gacha that dropped it back before AH exist. I know people said AH is a good thing, but AH inflates the price of almost everything...

    It's also deflated a ton of things as well though, anything not top of the line has been getting cheaper as of late. As for the topic at hand, do normal boxes you can get almost twice as many. That's what I did last time we had this event and I got 2.
    Jazmyn
  • BanazaiSabreBanazaiSabre
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    ive been wondering that myself. ive gotten at least 800 tickets worth of special boxs, but gotten absolutely garbage. i got one training seal, about 10 casual suits, weird school uniforms, and 1 umberella. i feel like i shudda just gotten regular boxs.
  • GTCvActiumGTCvActium
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    Hellkaizer wrote: »
    ShouK wrote: »
    I know someone got it from normal box. And after the quiz ended (which gives you the normal box) usually each round 1 person claimed they got it. Seeing the increasing amount of carasek bag in AH, those people might not be lying. All in all it just depends on your luck...

    I found it funny how the price of carasek bag didn't drop despite having the event though. I got my carasek bag for 12m when there's a gacha that dropped it back before AH exist. I know people said AH is a good thing, but AH inflates the price of almost everything...

    It's also deflated a ton of things as well though, anything not top of the line has been getting cheaper as of late. As for the topic at hand, do normal boxes you can get almost twice as many. That's what I did last time we had this event and I got 2.

    Just as with any system, AH is a tool. It just make life more convenient for transactions of goods that require little to no negotiations (which form the bulk of transactions). If you're looking at high end or expensive goods and want to get a better deal, then you'll have to put in actual work, which upon re-reading this, is most likely the problem. The fact is that high demand items are going to get inflated from people looking to maximize their profits, and people desperate and rich enough to drop the amount to pay for such prices. If you want to get a reasonable price, you'll have to work for it, namely haggle and negotiate. There will be people that want to see at a lower price for a number of reasons, liquidation, funds for another item, etc. Just as there are desperate people looking an item there are desperate people looking to gain quick profit from items at lower prices. But here-in lies the problem, it means you have to work for it, which people don't like to do.
  • BlortadBlortad
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    Ok, so from what you guys have said so far, it seems that the only difference in odds is, in fact, the special box containing 9 less items in total. The description on the announcement suggests this as well, since it reads, "Randomly rewards one of the following items." A difference of 9 items in a pool of more then 50, however, isn't a significant change in odds compared to the doubling of cost. (unless im way off on my estimation, which I very well might be, this sort of math is a real pain) It also seems that I was wrong about basically the only other item that means anything, the seals, as they are in both boxes. (unless that 25x means the special box rewards 25 of them and that's not just a typo) If you get a bag, keep reporting here and we'll see if we can figure this out with some reasonable degree of certainty. It might also be helpful if someone could directly compare the two lists to find out what, if anything, the special box has that normal does not, and what items normal has that special does not to give it the 9 less items that it has. I will eventually get around to doing it myself, but the sooner the better. I'm thinking that if there actually are no items that are only obtainable via the special box, the 9 item difference may be intended as an attempt to balance the odds of getting the items u really want from the box. If that's the case, its likely they just either didn't bother to check what the actual odds turn out to be after that or they did it incorrectly. (cause probability across multiple instances like this is hard to calculate accurately)

    I have so far spent a bunch of tickets, all of them in fact, on special boxes and not gotten even one single bag while several people I know got them fairly early on, a few even saying they got it from a normal box after question 10 while they were saving up for the Bull or the Bubble Chair. That combined with someone above saying they got 2 from a normal box last time this event ran has me inclined to believe that there is no artificial adjustment on the boxes drop rates. This could very well be a bias though, since the person above did say that they only used normal boxes, which gives us no indication of their drop rate compared to special boxes. It is possible, if the odds are artificially adjusted, that they may have gotten more had they used special instead. They also said it was from a past iteration of this event, and its entirely possible that the odds have been adjusted since then. The most helpful data would be from someone who has bought a mix of both boxes, but data from several people, each of which did either only normal or only special, would also work if we got enough of them.

    On the same token, does anyone actually remember (or know in the first place) how to do permutations so we can get the odds of any one item from each box given the number of items that exist in each? I'm almost positive that dropping 9 items out of 67 is nowhere near enough to adjust the odds to make up for doubling the cost, but permutations are weird and kinda hard to predict before you actually do the math, so its possible that I'm wrong, in which case that would be our answer right there. If the difference in drop pools actually DOES adequately adjust the odds for any one item then the special box would, in fact, be better even if the weight applied to each item is the same between both boxes. I think we can be reasonably sure of one thing at least, its unlikely, if the drop rates are adjusted at all, that the normal box was adjusted more favorably then the special box. The only real chance the normal box has of being legitimately better for obtaining the Carasek's Bag would be if there is no difference in artificial adjustments of odds between boxes and the 9 less items in the special box is not enough to balance the odds for doubling the cost.
  • BanazaiSabreBanazaiSabre
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    Theres 70+ items in the regular box.
    theres 61 items in the special box.
    Assuming they all have the "same drop rate" which is damn near impossible considering i have 8 casual suits, the higher drop rate would have to be special boxs.
    Assuming that regular boxs had "the same drop rate" the odds should be around 1.4286%
    With the same math, the odds of the speical giving it should be 1.63%.
    from the math, it SHOULD be higher in special boxs, but in a 1;1 ratio, you might just be better off with regular boxs.

    Thats assuming all drop table items have the same drop rate. Which i highly doubt, simply due to having 5 causal suits white, and 4 casual suits blue. and thats from about, 50 special box.

    50 tries with special boxs should give you a 81.5% chance of getting it.
    50 tries with regular boxs should have a chance of about 71.43%.
    but since the exact numbers arent known, and the carasek bag might have a reduced drop rate in comparsion to everything else, This is all just fancy guess work that means nothing. Carasek could have a 0.25% drop, rendering all this math worthless.

    Not to mention the whole luck thing, you could endlessly roll and never get the item anyway.
    Jianto
  • BlortadBlortad
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    Ok, so based on Banazi's numbers, under similar assumptions, you are absolutely better off with the normal box. There is absolutely no circumstance under which buying half as many special boxes as you could buy normal boxes will lead to a greater change of getting any one item for the same ticket cost. A direct comparison counting only the difference in item count in a sample of 50 each shows a gap of 10%~, but in terms of ticket cost, a more accurate comparison should be 50 special compared to 100 normal since the cost is doubled. At this point its undeniable that the one and only way that special boxes to be better for getting the bag overall is if the special boxes significantly adjust the odds for the Carasek's bag specifically. It is pretty clear that the bold text items have a much lower drop rate then the rest of the items in the box. (along with those damn training seals) It seems fairly likely to me that the odds were adjusted in the same manner between both boxes, which should come with the same difference in odds as any other item when isolated from the rest and represented individually. Though there is also a pretty good chance that, since the odds were clearly adjusted in some manner, the special box's odds may have been adjusted differently then the normal box's odds.

    So far, all evidence points to normal boxes being better in terms of chance to get a bag per tickets spent, but we still lack the data to say anything concrete. What we have so far is enough already to make me change from buying special boxes to buying normal ones since I get 2-3 normal boxes each run from tickets compared to 1-2 special boxes. (excluding the 1 free normal box you get from question 10) The only easily obtainable useful data at this point would be what items are unique in each box. If there are no unique items that can only be obtained from the special box, it would be reasonable to suggest that the the lower item count in the special box was intended to be the sole benefit to getting it, in which case they made a logistical error in compensating for the increased cost of the special box. This would not be entirely surprising considering Nexon's history, especially when you consider that this is only a small part of a temporary event.

    My advice for the time being would be to stick to the much cheaper normal boxes. It would be nice if we could get some clarification from the mods, but even if they did know, they probably wont say because they WANT this ambiguity between the boxes to create variations in what each person spends their tickets on besides just whether you care about the bull and bubble chair or not.
  • BanazaiSabreBanazaiSabre
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    edited September 5, 2018
    No. my numbers could be completely wrong. if the odds of even one item is increased, and one is decreased, on either table, my math is completely incorrect. example. potions are 2 %. thats shifting the chance of a carasek bag way down. this is just "if they are all the same drop rate".
  • BlortadBlortad
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    Right, but the difference in odds from one box to the other should be about the same. Maybe the odds are actually more like 0.1% from normal and 0.3% from special or something like that, but the difference between the odds to get the bag from the special box and the odds to get it from the normal box should stay roughly the same, right? You seem to actually remember the nuances of the math for this, and I sure don't so I could be wrong, but I DO know that doubling the number of boxes you buy doesn't just double the odds of getting the item, probability isn't that simple. If the weight applied to the odds of the bag is the same, is there any way that this math could work out, given the difference in item count, to actually give half as many special boxes as normal boxes the same or greater odds of obtaining the bag? The kind of sample size we would need to determine this accurately is effectively unobtainable, so all we have to work with is hypothetical situations. What would that weight need to look like for the special boxes to actually be the better option here, and how likely is it that that specific weight applies if we assume the weight is the same between both boxes, adjusting only for the gap in item count.
  • BanazaiSabreBanazaiSabre
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    edited September 5, 2018
    Its hard to argue it without the exact numbers. but assuming the gap is less then about 0.4%*, then yes the cheaper box is a far superior option. in fact if it was 0.1 to 0.2(10box:20box) then the cheaper box is a much better option. you are correct, yes.
    Jianto
  • BlortadBlortad
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    Man, why cant there be more people like you? What I'm wondering now is what would things even need to look like in order for the difference in odds to actually justify the increase in cost? We might get some insight from that, like say if it turns out that in order for the odds to justify the cost, the drop rate of the bag would need to be high enough that we could easily confirm that that is not the case based on the number of people, like me, who have bought 50+ special boxes already and not gotten a bag. If the odds would need to be too high to reasonably be represented by our current sample of special box purchases, then we would be able to say with a much greater degree of certainty that the normal ones are better.
  • BanazaiSabreBanazaiSabre
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    i dont like admiting your right because i dont have the numbers, so i feel someones gonna read it as true. i once got the mystery robe off a single gapcha purchease, wheres my freind who bought over 100 didnt. i know this is kinda unrelated snice its two diffrent boxs, but they technically had the superior probablity of getting the robe.
    im also not entirely sure im doing my math right.
    working out the probablity should be 1.46%* the attempts= probablity. but im not sure this is incrementale, and i cant remember how to do that kinda math. if you were to roll 1.46% 100 times, the math should be around 1.43, you got the item, and a 43% chance of getting it again.
    i just cant remember how to do a continus 1.46% chance roll. my math is probably waay off in my first probability guess.
  • BlortadBlortad
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    Ya, there's some diminishing factor in play with successive rolls to determine actual odds when counting those odds as a singular chance to get the item within the decided sample, but I also don't remember the specifics of the math for it. I'm pretty sure that each sample set would count as a combination (not permutation like I said earlier, permutation is where order is important to the final count, combinations is essentially the same thing, except that the order the items are in doesn't matter) where each sequence would be the list of items u would get in a given sample size. Say you buy 10 boxes, how many possible combinations of 10 items exist. I think the fact that there can be duplicates throws a wrench in the works for the math behind combinations though, but I'm fairly sure there's a means of adjusting for repeats. After that it would be a matter of determining how many combinations contain a Carasek's bag, then representing the results in the form of a percentage. I'm going to attempt to relearn combinations. If I can, I should be able to generate some results for a few simple weights. I'll start with an easy one and go with counting each non-bold item twice and each bold item, including the bag, only once. Its absolutely going to be more complex then that since there're things like the seals, which aren't bold but are very clearly more rare then the other non-bold items on the list based on the info we have so far, but it will give us a starting point to go from. At that point we should be able to gather the results of sets of 10 of each kind of box, which people will hopefully contribute to, and compare what we see in real results to what we would expect from what we have to figure out what items seem to have more or less weight then others. Once we get some comparisons we can then adjust the count given to each item according to the sample sets we get to give us a much more accurate view of the actual probability each box has of dropping the bag.
  • BlortadBlortad
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    Well here's a link to the Wikipedia page for Combinations if anyone is interested in helping solve this madness.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combination

    I haven't made it very far yet, but just finding the number of k-combinations for something on this large of a scale alone is a huge hurdle. First off, you have to account for the possibility of repeats, that alone is hard. On top of that, we're dealing with altered chance weights by counting common items multiple times in the available set of elements. This means that something like a Spinel would be on the elements list twice at least. So if you get Spinel1 and Spinel2 in the same k-combination, that's 2 of the same item added to your inventory, but that's not a repeat mathematically since its 2 separate elements used to represent that same item for the lower weight on its odds.

    On that Wikipedia page it describes the odds of getting any one given poker hand as 1/2,598,960. Not only would we be dealing with a much more massive pool of results then you would get with a 52 card deck, but we also have greater then 4 in our availability of possible repeats, and any given item selected for each entry in a given k-combination remains in the list of elements as opposed to being removed like what happens with a deck of cards. If you can imagine something similar in nature to what is represented by a deck of playing cards, only with bigger numbers, that's what we'd be dealing with here. Chances are, with this specific situation, the math would far exceed named numbers and enter realms of math that can only be represented in scientific notation, which makes the math even more complex then it already was, and that's just getting something for a comparative basis to begin to zero in on the actual odds of getting this bag in one box compared to the other.

    Needless to say, it would be much faster to get an answer if someone experienced in the math relating to combinations with a relatively large scale set of elements and really odd rules applying to the possibility of duplicates.

    In light of all this, it kinda makes me wonder why counting cards is illegal. If you can do this kind of math in your head on the fly without dropping your poker face and without anyone else noticing or any stalling to get the math actually done, you're a god, and yet these people somehow actually exist. Amazing.
  • Sphyra21Sphyra21
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    2nd day of the event (after I spent all my coupons on a bubble chair the nite b4 ♥) I bought 3 normal boxes, 1st one I opened gave me the carasek bag coupon ^^. So I'd say the norm boxes are the way to go. Oh also got the new umbrella the other day ^^
  • BlortadBlortad
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    edited September 5, 2018
    Ya, but that's an isolated sample. If you look at it in terms of the number of normal boxes bought by every player, you getting it on roll 1 is easily balanced out by the number of people who have bought 100+ normal boxes and gotten no bag. That's not even beginning to consider the possibility that one or more of any given set of peoples given samples could be a fabrication. Help learn combinations from that link I put above, cause I honestly think doing that on this kind of a massive scale is a little beyond me, but a collective effort might be enough to solve this thing.

    I gotta say though, I knew this would be complex and difficult, but WOW! It would be easier to data mine the actual odds then it would be to actually gather samples and do the math.
  • KensamaofmariKensamaofmari
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    I know one person got it with some stroke of luck.
  • BlortadBlortad
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    In case it wasn't clear btw, Ive given up on trying to actually solve this via insane math. I'm just going to trust in Nexon's track record of being horribly inaccurate with math regarding balance and buy the cheaper box unless someone smarter then I am comes along and solves this or manages to mine the actual drop rate.
    Sphyra21