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Carasek's Bag from event boxes
So I was looking over the drop list for the 2 event boxes for the quiz show and it seems the special box has unique rewards, so I was wondering if that was the only difference between the two or if there are adjusted odds for rare items with the special box? Since its so rare its hard to say from only one persons experience, but if anyone who has obtained a bag can remember what box they got it from it could get us closer to knowing which is better to go for to get the Carasek's Bag.
My reasoning here is that the normal box is only 10 tickets while the special is 20. If the only difference is the drop pools then that means that the normal box would actually be the best one if you don't care about the unique drops in the special box. On the other hand, if that's not the only difference and the special box has a higher chance to drop the bag then the normal box, it might be worth spending twice the tickets per box if the change in drop rate makes up for the cost increase.
Personally, that bag is the only item in any of the currently running events that I really care about. Training seals would be nice, but I haven't even gotten one, and iv been going on the assumption that the special box is better until recently.
Something else to be mindful of is that if the number of one kind of box a person opened is disproportionate to the number of the other kind of box, it will make the odds appear skewed when they actually aren't. Say you only opened 10 normals and 100 specials, its obviously going to be more likely for you to get it in specials at that point even if the drop rate is the same.
There are also more items in the normal box by 9. If the drop rates are the same, that would give the special box a slightly higher chance to drop the bag, but I don't think it would be enough to make up for the cost doubling.
Comments
I found it funny how the price of carasek bag didn't drop despite having the event though. I got my carasek bag for 12m when there's a gacha that dropped it back before AH exist. I know people said AH is a good thing, but AH inflates the price of almost everything...
It's also deflated a ton of things as well though, anything not top of the line has been getting cheaper as of late. As for the topic at hand, do normal boxes you can get almost twice as many. That's what I did last time we had this event and I got 2.
Just as with any system, AH is a tool. It just make life more convenient for transactions of goods that require little to no negotiations (which form the bulk of transactions). If you're looking at high end or expensive goods and want to get a better deal, then you'll have to put in actual work, which upon re-reading this, is most likely the problem. The fact is that high demand items are going to get inflated from people looking to maximize their profits, and people desperate and rich enough to drop the amount to pay for such prices. If you want to get a reasonable price, you'll have to work for it, namely haggle and negotiate. There will be people that want to see at a lower price for a number of reasons, liquidation, funds for another item, etc. Just as there are desperate people looking an item there are desperate people looking to gain quick profit from items at lower prices. But here-in lies the problem, it means you have to work for it, which people don't like to do.
I have so far spent a bunch of tickets, all of them in fact, on special boxes and not gotten even one single bag while several people I know got them fairly early on, a few even saying they got it from a normal box after question 10 while they were saving up for the Bull or the Bubble Chair. That combined with someone above saying they got 2 from a normal box last time this event ran has me inclined to believe that there is no artificial adjustment on the boxes drop rates. This could very well be a bias though, since the person above did say that they only used normal boxes, which gives us no indication of their drop rate compared to special boxes. It is possible, if the odds are artificially adjusted, that they may have gotten more had they used special instead. They also said it was from a past iteration of this event, and its entirely possible that the odds have been adjusted since then. The most helpful data would be from someone who has bought a mix of both boxes, but data from several people, each of which did either only normal or only special, would also work if we got enough of them.
On the same token, does anyone actually remember (or know in the first place) how to do permutations so we can get the odds of any one item from each box given the number of items that exist in each? I'm almost positive that dropping 9 items out of 67 is nowhere near enough to adjust the odds to make up for doubling the cost, but permutations are weird and kinda hard to predict before you actually do the math, so its possible that I'm wrong, in which case that would be our answer right there. If the difference in drop pools actually DOES adequately adjust the odds for any one item then the special box would, in fact, be better even if the weight applied to each item is the same between both boxes. I think we can be reasonably sure of one thing at least, its unlikely, if the drop rates are adjusted at all, that the normal box was adjusted more favorably then the special box. The only real chance the normal box has of being legitimately better for obtaining the Carasek's Bag would be if there is no difference in artificial adjustments of odds between boxes and the 9 less items in the special box is not enough to balance the odds for doubling the cost.
theres 61 items in the special box.
Assuming they all have the "same drop rate" which is damn near impossible considering i have 8 casual suits, the higher drop rate would have to be special boxs.
Assuming that regular boxs had "the same drop rate" the odds should be around 1.4286%
With the same math, the odds of the speical giving it should be 1.63%.
from the math, it SHOULD be higher in special boxs, but in a 1;1 ratio, you might just be better off with regular boxs.
Thats assuming all drop table items have the same drop rate. Which i highly doubt, simply due to having 5 causal suits white, and 4 casual suits blue. and thats from about, 50 special box.
50 tries with special boxs should give you a 81.5% chance of getting it.
50 tries with regular boxs should have a chance of about 71.43%.
but since the exact numbers arent known, and the carasek bag might have a reduced drop rate in comparsion to everything else, This is all just fancy guess work that means nothing. Carasek could have a 0.25% drop, rendering all this math worthless.
Not to mention the whole luck thing, you could endlessly roll and never get the item anyway.
So far, all evidence points to normal boxes being better in terms of chance to get a bag per tickets spent, but we still lack the data to say anything concrete. What we have so far is enough already to make me change from buying special boxes to buying normal ones since I get 2-3 normal boxes each run from tickets compared to 1-2 special boxes. (excluding the 1 free normal box you get from question 10) The only easily obtainable useful data at this point would be what items are unique in each box. If there are no unique items that can only be obtained from the special box, it would be reasonable to suggest that the the lower item count in the special box was intended to be the sole benefit to getting it, in which case they made a logistical error in compensating for the increased cost of the special box. This would not be entirely surprising considering Nexon's history, especially when you consider that this is only a small part of a temporary event.
My advice for the time being would be to stick to the much cheaper normal boxes. It would be nice if we could get some clarification from the mods, but even if they did know, they probably wont say because they WANT this ambiguity between the boxes to create variations in what each person spends their tickets on besides just whether you care about the bull and bubble chair or not.
im also not entirely sure im doing my math right.
working out the probablity should be 1.46%* the attempts= probablity. but im not sure this is incrementale, and i cant remember how to do that kinda math. if you were to roll 1.46% 100 times, the math should be around 1.43, you got the item, and a 43% chance of getting it again.
i just cant remember how to do a continus 1.46% chance roll. my math is probably waay off in my first probability guess.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combination
I haven't made it very far yet, but just finding the number of k-combinations for something on this large of a scale alone is a huge hurdle. First off, you have to account for the possibility of repeats, that alone is hard. On top of that, we're dealing with altered chance weights by counting common items multiple times in the available set of elements. This means that something like a Spinel would be on the elements list twice at least. So if you get Spinel1 and Spinel2 in the same k-combination, that's 2 of the same item added to your inventory, but that's not a repeat mathematically since its 2 separate elements used to represent that same item for the lower weight on its odds.
On that Wikipedia page it describes the odds of getting any one given poker hand as 1/2,598,960. Not only would we be dealing with a much more massive pool of results then you would get with a 52 card deck, but we also have greater then 4 in our availability of possible repeats, and any given item selected for each entry in a given k-combination remains in the list of elements as opposed to being removed like what happens with a deck of cards. If you can imagine something similar in nature to what is represented by a deck of playing cards, only with bigger numbers, that's what we'd be dealing with here. Chances are, with this specific situation, the math would far exceed named numbers and enter realms of math that can only be represented in scientific notation, which makes the math even more complex then it already was, and that's just getting something for a comparative basis to begin to zero in on the actual odds of getting this bag in one box compared to the other.
Needless to say, it would be much faster to get an answer if someone experienced in the math relating to combinations with a relatively large scale set of elements and really odd rules applying to the possibility of duplicates.
In light of all this, it kinda makes me wonder why counting cards is illegal. If you can do this kind of math in your head on the fly without dropping your poker face and without anyone else noticing or any stalling to get the math actually done, you're a god, and yet these people somehow actually exist. Amazing.
I gotta say though, I knew this would be complex and difficult, but WOW! It would be easier to data mine the actual odds then it would be to actually gather samples and do the math.