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Carasek's Bag from event boxes

Comments

  • BanazaiSabreBanazaiSabre
    Mabinogi Rep: 1,955
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    the answer is Binomial Distribution, but holy hell is it overly complicated for me.
  • BlortadBlortad
    Mabinogi Rep: 2,490
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    edited September 5, 2018
    I think there's still a group of ppl who run a forum dedicated to modding this game somewhere, but I think anything more then vague reference to their existence might be against the code of conduct. I'v met plenty of modders in game, maybe one of u guys can go beg them to poke something for that drop rate, let them get banned for questionable activity while we all benefit from their spoils, I'm sure at least one of them has already done it, or at least tried. I'v no interest in getting banned or silenced or whatever though, so thats on someone else to maybe do, but... (well... that was going to be a Spiderman "Wouldn't recommend it" meme, but apparently this forum had other ideas)

    Unless Banzai cracks this thing like a boss, but I'm already spent.
  • BlortadBlortad
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    Just got my bag finally, normal box, took roughly 100 boxes, in that same time I bought about 30 or so special boxes and didn't get one from that, not exactly proof one way or the other cause the numbers are off and its an isolated example, but more data is always good
    Jazmyn
  • BanazaiSabreBanazaiSabre
    Mabinogi Rep: 1,955
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    not exactly helpful, but theres technically 3 boxs. the two shop types, and one you get for beating all 10 questions. just add more chaos to the fire...
    but nice. i feel like i wasted alot of tickets on those specials. most of the items i got i could barely sell off for 25k.
  • ThanaturgistThanaturgist
    Mabinogi Rep: 1,235
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    ShouK wrote: »
    I know someone got it from normal box. And after the quiz ended (which gives you the normal box) usually each round 1 person claimed they got it. Seeing the increasing amount of carasek bag in AH, those people might not be lying. All in all it just depends on your luck...

    I found it funny how the price of carasek bag didn't drop despite having the event though. I got my carasek bag for 12m when there's a gacha that dropped it back before AH exist. I know people said AH is a good thing, but AH inflates the price of almost everything...

    I got mine from the box you get after the quiz ends, so it's definitely possible.

    Nah, it's not the AH's fault. Last year for the OX event, the carasek bag skyrocketed in price around then too, even though it was a drop in the boxes. The event brings people's attention to it and raises the demand, which raises the price thanks to the low supply.
  • ShouKShouK
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    Nah, it's not the AH's fault. Last year for the OX event, the carasek bag skyrocketed in price around then too, even though it was a drop in the boxes. The event brings people's attention to it and raises the demand, which raises the price thanks to the low supply.
    Iirc in the previous OX event the drop rate for carasek bag is horrible so its price don't decrease during the event. I remember many people complained in the forum.
  • BlortadBlortad
    Mabinogi Rep: 2,490
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    Ya, I actually just noticed that when I got my bag finally, I had saved up tickets and bought like 7 boxes at once so I tried stacking them and noticed the one from q10 doesn't stack with the ones from the shop, even though they're both "normal" boxes. And I wouldn't worry too much about the other items being cheap, they'll go up when everyone throws them all away cause they have too many and someone eventually actually wants them later when the event is over.
  • BlortadBlortad
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    edited September 5, 2018
    ShouK wrote: »
    Nah, it's not the AH's fault. Last year for the OX event, the carasek bag skyrocketed in price around then too, even though it was a drop in the boxes. The event brings people's attention to it and raises the demand, which raises the price thanks to the low supply.
    Iirc in the previous OX event the drop rate for carasek bag is horrible so its price don't decrease during the event. I remember many people complained in the forum.

    Hey, anyone can say what they want about the AH, that thing means more stable servers. How you ask? Simple! Now most ppl don't end up going afk for 50 years to sell all their junk. Just go look at Belvast now, its mostly empty, a mere shadow of its former self. (Im on Ruairi, idk about the rest) Compare it to before? Belvast used to be crazy packed constantly to the point you couldn't even get a spot sometimes. All those extra ppl pouring massive amounts of extra stress onto the servers is bound to cause lag in a game whose servers are known to already be not great to begin with. Iv had 1 rubberbanding incident since I started again, and that was my internets fault. I use mostly gunner, let that sink in for a second. On top of that, Im richer then iv ever been cause I can finally reasonably sell all the obscure crap iv collected over the years with an actually reasonable chance of success. If I get a second carasek and save it for about 3 months or so, Ill be even more rich!
  • AricaArica
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    I opened 50 of the special boxes and got one, then my sister opened about 20 special boxes and got one.
    Jazmyn
  • BronzebreakBronzebreak
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    Brother and I opened 15 between the two of us and got one; we haven't received another after 16 boxes (not that I'm surprised) combined.
  • GretaGreta
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    What... Carasek Bag isn't so rare anymore or what?
  • KensamaofmariKensamaofmari
    Mabinogi Rep: 34,745
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    Greta wrote: »
    What... Carasek Bag isn't so rare anymore or what?

    Mabi probabilities.
  • JiantoJianto
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    edited September 7, 2018
    100+ boxes no carasek, feelsbadman
  • KensamaofmariKensamaofmari
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    Jianto wrote: »
    100+ boxes no carasek, feelsbadman

    Mabi probabilities.
  • ArjuneArjune
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    Jianto wrote: »
    100+ boxes no carasek, feelsbadman

    special or normal?
  • JiantoJianto
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    Arjune wrote: »
    Jianto wrote: »
    100+ boxes no carasek, feelsbadman

    special or normal?

    Normal, as I heard people says its better
  • FluoretteFluorette
    Mabinogi Rep: 4,840
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    edited September 8, 2018
    I haven't participated in the current OX event, but during the previous one I obtained Carasek's Bag from the normal box. It seems like others here have had a similar experience, so maybe you will want to opt for that.
  • JiantoJianto
    Mabinogi Rep: 1,105
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    edited September 16, 2018
    Alright after 400 or 500 normal boxes or more (I attended the quiz every hour when I was awake every day lol) I finally got a carasek bag! Normal boxes are the way to go, good luck with the remaining days whoever reads this. Now it's time for black bag hunting lol.
    Jazmyn
  • JazmynJazmyn
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    I got one 3 hours ago from the box you get at the end of the quiz. Yay!
  • AnimemabiAnimemabi
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    Blortad wrote: »
    So I was looking over the drop list for the 2 event boxes for the quiz show and it seems the special box has unique rewards, so I was wondering if that was the only difference between the two or if there are adjusted odds for rare items with the special box? Since its so rare its hard to say from only one persons experience, but if anyone who has obtained a bag can remember what box they got it from it could get us closer to knowing which is better to go for to get the Carasek's Bag.

    My reasoning here is that the normal box is only 10 tickets while the special is 20. If the only difference is the drop pools then that means that the normal box would actually be the best one if you don't care about the unique drops in the special box. On the other hand, if that's not the only difference and the special box has a higher chance to drop the bag then the normal box, it might be worth spending twice the tickets per box if the change in drop rate makes up for the cost increase.

    Personally, that bag is the only item in any of the currently running events that I really care about. Training seals would be nice, but I haven't even gotten one, and iv been going on the assumption that the special box is better until recently.

    Something else to be mindful of is that if the number of one kind of box a person opened is disproportionate to the number of the other kind of box, it will make the odds appear skewed when they actually aren't. Say you only opened 10 normals and 100 specials, its obviously going to be more likely for you to get it in specials at that point even if the drop rate is the same.

    There are also more items in the normal box by 9. If the drop rates are the same, that would give the special box a slightly higher chance to drop the bag, but I don't think it would be enough to make up for the cost doubling.

    I got my bag out of my second normal box from just participating your over thinking it just do the event its rng
    Jazmyn