Black bag

Blortad · September 13, 2018

So I saw this amazing bag is a possible reward from the fishing event, so I decided to go check the wiki to see what events it was given in before and I saw that it supposedly drops from old fishing traps from the winter fishing event! I just so happen to have like 800 of those rotting in my inventory! I would have opened those so much sooner if I knew. Now if this maintenance will end soon, I can go open my masses of ancient event boxes and probably not get the bag, YAY!

Leinei · September 13, 2018

For something that size and level of awesome, it is likely to be really rare.

Blortad · September 13, 2018

I think these boxes are cause I didnt bother looking at the reward list for these things, that or didnt see that amazing bag in there, so I decided to just save them until I wanted event drops randomly like I did with some old manus fishing bait. I was more interested in the quest rewards, which I think was AP. Im pretty sure the boxes I collected were the boxes from the entire course of the event. I really hope I get it from those, cause if I do, that means that any I get from the event (the new one) I can sell immediately unlike with the bingo event where I got my first carasek, but still haven't managed to get one to sell. Its usually pretty statistically reasonable to expect to get at least one of any given events rarest item if u participate in the entire thing.

SapphiraMuse · September 13, 2018

I opened at least 500 of those traps during that winter fishing event.

Not a single one gave me a black bag

Sheena · September 13, 2018

The black bag is a lie, I have tried to get that damn bag for 3 possible events now and still cant get it.
Not only that, but I have never seen ANYONE getting the bag and brag about it on the forums, which is very suspicious... I can bet my thunder bird that the chances of getting that bag is below 1%

I rest my case.
gosickdetective.png?resize=537%2C373

Blortad · September 13, 2018

It probably is, even the carasek bag was as far as I can tell, it seems from most peoples testimonies that it was roughly 1 in 200 boxes. Given the much greater volume the old fishing traps were given in, id wager somewhere in the ballpark of 1/500 or so, though that is absolutely nothing more then a stab in the dark.

Gaby5011 · September 13, 2018

SapphiraMuse wrote: »

I opened at least 500 of those traps during that winter fishing event.

Not a single one gave me a black bag

Only 500? Jeez I lost count on how many I opened during that event. I'd say at least 4000 here. Didn't get a single bag :<

Hellkaizer · September 13, 2018

I hope you guys know a 1/500 for black bag is unrealistically nice. That means you'll see like 1/10 people getting it. I'd say it's probably at least 1/5000.

Jazmyn · September 13, 2018

Sheena wrote: »

The black bag is a lie, I have tried to get that damn bag for 3 possible events now and still cant get it.
Not only that, but I have never seen ANYONE getting the bag and brag about it on the forums, which is very suspicious... I can bet my thunder bird that the chances of getting that bag is below 1%

I rest my case.

My husband got one. I was sad.

I'm over it now though. I have inventory space.

Arjune · September 13, 2018

I also opened over 4000 old fish traps and got no black bag. I think the number was close to 4200

Rhey · September 13, 2018

One does not simply get optimistic just cuz black blag is on the reward list...

Opened~~(OLD BAIT)~~ 10k+ and someone I know did 30k+...nada.nope.zip.gif

Ofelia · September 14, 2018

It's simple math.

We count the items from the jar.
80 items are listed on the main page (correct me if I'm wrong)

1 - ( ( 1 - x ) ^ y )

X being the number of items.
Y the number you open.

Or simple

(1/80)^1= 0.01

Blortad · September 14, 2018

I like how everyone is like "well I opened x number of boxes with no bag, so the odds MUST be x/x+(some arbitrary amount)." like thats how chance works. That is EXACTLY what anecdote is. We need either stupidly tricky math or a massive sample size to get anything accurate. Theres a really good thread about the droprate of the carasek bag somewhere on here that goes over the details of that. Go check it out, cause unless someone is really good at doing Combinations with really wonky Binomeal Distribution, theres no way we can know the actual odds for sure. 1/5000 is less then the odds of encountering a shiny in the wild in pokemon. To give you some perspective, Gamefreak recently made a plethora of ways to get dramatically increased shiny odds because literally nobody who wasnt cheating had any shinies at all in competitive play, and thats Pokemon wer talking about, the second largest video game franchise on the planet. So ya... the fact that this bag exists AT ALL with Mabis comparatively tiny player base means its absolutely better then 1/5000. Heres some more perspective for those of you who favor anecdote. I have played pokemon since Red, Blue, and Yellow (shinies actually came out in Gold and Silver), and in my entire time playing Pokemon I have encountered 2 shinies ever in my entire life that werent through some boosted odds mechanic, and encountering wild pokemon is 80% of any pokemon game. I guarantee that I have encountered vastly more wild pokemon then anyone has ever opened fish traps or these jars. That being said, I didnt get a black bag from my 650ish old traps unfortunately. I wouldnt be surprised, given the volume of these bags, if it was greater then 1/500, but 1/5000 is way too much, realistically it cant be much more then 1/2000 at the most, probably closer to 1/1000.

Hellkaizer · September 14, 2018

Ofelia wrote: »

It's simple math.

We count the items from the jar.
80 items are listed on the main page (correct me if I'm wrong)

1 - ( ( 1 - x ) ^ y )

X being the number of items.
Y the number you open.

Or simple

(1/80)^1= 0.01

That's assuming every item is weighted the same, which it isn't. The formula gets crazy when it needs to account for that.

Bronzebreak · September 14, 2018

Hellkaizer wrote: »

Ofelia wrote: »

It's simple math.

We count the items from the jar.
80 items are listed on the main page (correct me if I'm wrong)

1 - ( ( 1 - x ) ^ y )

X being the number of items.
Y the number you open.

Or simple

(1/80)^1= 0.01

That's assuming every item is weighted the same, which it isn't. The formula gets crazy when it needs to account for that.

And that's decimal, there'd be a 1.25% chance of obtaining it if all are equally weighted.

Crimsọn · September 14, 2018

deleted, leaving the forums.

Blortad · September 15, 2018

Hellkaizer wrote: »

Ofelia wrote: »

It's simple math.

We count the items from the jar.
80 items are listed on the main page (correct me if I'm wrong)

1 - ( ( 1 - x ) ^ y )

X being the number of items.
Y the number you open.

Or simple

(1/80)^1= 0.01

That's assuming every item is weighted the same, which it isn't. The formula gets crazy when it needs to account for that.

And that's where the Combinations with adjusted binomial distribution comes in. Basically, what u have to do is come up with a combinations formula counting the more common items multiple times to account for the alterations in weight to the droprate. From there we can make adjustments based on samples we get from players and zero in on the actual weights on the items. Once we have the weights of the items to a semi-accurate degree we can do another Combinations formula to find the number of combinations that contain a black bag in any given sample size and render that into a percentage. I linked to the same thing in the last droprate discussion, so here it is again, the Wikipedia page for Combinations. I tried to figure this out last time with the Caraseks bag, but it became far beyond me when I got to finding the number of k-combinations accounting for various hiccups like combinations containing multiple instances of a repeat that was added to the list for weight adjustment. Someone said last time that Binomial distribution was the answer, but it was a bit beyond anyone that visited the Carasek thread.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combination

Rhey · September 15, 2018

You'll have a better chance of getting one off stalking Personal shops than playing the rng game.

Veylaine · September 15, 2018

Sheena wrote: »

The black bag is a lie, I have tried to get that damn bag for 3 possible events now and still cant get it.
Not only that, but I have never seen ANYONE getting the bag and brag about it on the forums, which is very suspicious... I can bet my thunder bird that the chances of getting that bag is below 1%

I rest my case.

Well it has been achieved
http://forums.mabinogi.nexon.net/discussion/14973/anyone-gotten-a-black-bag-yet/p1

Deol wrote: »

I got it on my second day fishing.

Arnaut wrote: »

I'm a lucky man

http://forums.mabinogi.nexon.net/discussion/14943/fishing-event/p1

Chocokitten wrote: »

Actually got the bag
https://m.imgur.com/oJj9jmD
still fishing-all i really want are a mountain of hs seeds...

Rhey · September 15, 2018

Veylaine wrote: »

Sheena wrote: »

The black bag is a lie, I have tried to get that damn bag for 3 possible events now and still cant get it.
Not only that, but I have never seen ANYONE getting the bag and brag about it on the forums, which is very suspicious... I can bet my thunder bird that the chances of getting that bag is below 1%

I rest my case.

Well it has been achieved
http://forums.mabinogi.nexon.net/discussion/14973/anyone-gotten-a-black-bag-yet/p1

Deol wrote: »

I got it on my second day fishing.

Arnaut wrote: »

I'm a lucky man

http://forums.mabinogi.nexon.net/discussion/14943/fishing-event/p1

Chocokitten wrote: »

Actually got the bag
https://m.imgur.com/oJj9jmD
still fishing-all i really want are a mountain of hs seeds...

Server?

Veylaine · September 15, 2018

its usually not a good idea to go into these events going for the rarest item only, basically you're setting yourself up for disappointment.

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