Check out all of the details of this month's Patch Notes, featuring the Reflections Update!
https://mabinogi.nexon.net/news/68890/reflections-patch-notes-september-9th-2021
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Neat we can see the droprates now.

Comments

  • FullBucketPimpDaddyFullBucketPimpDaddy
    Mabinogi Rep: 1,220
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    Wings were a mistake
  • GretaGreta
    Mabinogi Rep: 46,735
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    Wings were a mistake

    As well as tails.
  • HelsaHelsa
    Mabinogi Rep: 20,475
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    edited December 7, 2018
    Gaea wrote: »
    Wings are dead.

    I've never been into wings myself, in fact, I just used those wings as an example, but this got me thinking.

    Here is the link to the drop rate table. If you're curious about what the numbers are for a particular item, look up it's percentage here. Call it CHANCE.

    1) To find out how many tries it takes to be, on average statistically certain, to get the item then go: 100%/CHANCE. Call it TRIES.
    2) To find out how much NX a try costs take the NXPRICE of the gacha or box divided by how many ATTEMPTS that come in the package: NXPRICE/ATTEMPTS. Call it NXCOST.
    3) To find out how much NX that Nexon expects you to spend to get the item then go: TRIES x NXCOST. Call it NXTOTAL.
    4) To find out how much money that is, in US Dollars, then go: NXTOTAL/1000. Call it DOLLARS.
    5) If you don't live in the US, use your current exchange rate on DOLLARS.
    6) If you want to convert that to gold via the gold farmers market. Go find an add-bot in Dunby Square and note how much GOLD they give and for what $PRICE then go: GOLD x DOLLARS / $PRICE. Call it TOTALGOLD.

    You can use that as an ultimate yardstick for when to buy the item using gold or when to just buy gacha. But it occurs to me, now that we know all the costs, there's a second thing you can do. If you were to risk buying gold from a gold farmer, which BTW I think violates the EULA, and wanted know if the current rate offered is worth it, think about what is the absolute maximum price, in gold, you would be willing to pay for the item and call it TARGET. Now, using their fixed rate of gold offered, go: TARGET x $PRICE / DOLLARS. This will tell you the target price for each lot of gold that you would otherwise be willing to pay.
  • KensamaofmariKensamaofmari
    Mabinogi Rep: 34,525
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    Should one really trust Mabi's #s?
    I mean remember 90% repair rate?
    THICCthighssavelivesImaizumiVeylainePolicromapawcalypse
  • FullBucketPimpDaddyFullBucketPimpDaddy
    Mabinogi Rep: 1,220
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    Forget failing 90%, weren't people failing repairs on some 100% repair events?
    pawcalypse
  • KensamaofmariKensamaofmari
    Mabinogi Rep: 34,525
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    Forget failing 90%, weren't people failing repairs on some 100% repair events?

    Perhaps their hands slipped. :p
    pawcalypse
  • AlexisEUAlexisEU
    Mabinogi Rep: 1,400
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    Saint Guardian's Rapier, Saint Guardian's Guard Cylinder are in this gachapon but not listed.
    Were these accidentally put in instead of their appearance scrolls?
  • GretaGreta
    Mabinogi Rep: 46,735
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    AlexisEU wrote: »
    Saint Guardian's Rapier, Saint Guardian's Guard Cylinder are in this gachapon but not listed.
    Were these accidentally put in instead of their appearance scrolls?

    LOL what?
  • OfeliaOfelia
    Mabinogi Rep: 1,500
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    I never could get what all the fuss is about. It's a "free to play" game that does not block content behind paywalls. You're playing the game for "free" and if a person wants to flush 600 dollars down the drain for some in game bling let them.
  • LastSaturdayLastSaturday
    Mabinogi Rep: 1,215
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    This armor set... Why isn't it a drop in the game? Will we be getting comparable armor in game with the new content update?
  • VeylaineVeylaine
    Mabinogi Rep: 3,850
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    edited December 9, 2018
    Ofelia wrote: »
    I never could get what all the fuss is about. It's a "free to play" game that does not block content behind paywalls. You're playing the game for "free" and if a person wants to flush 600 dollars down the drain for some in game bling let them.

    I know, this also numerical explained why in the past I'd get so many elite passes or trans medals in the past (always had a feeling why but its cool to see it in official percentages), its just fascinating seeing the actual data for me at least. I really don't care if someone spends *tons* of money on the game, just looking at the drop rates is interesting.

    Though I can see some people using this as a way to bash gachas.
  • OfeliaOfelia
    Mabinogi Rep: 1,500
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    Veylaine wrote: »
    Ofelia wrote: »
    I never could get what all the fuss is about. It's a "free to play" game that does not block content behind paywalls. You're playing the game for "free" and if a person wants to flush 600 dollars down the drain for some in game bling let them.

    I know, this also numerical explained why in the past I'd get so many elite passes or trans medals in the past (always had a feeling why but its cool to see it in official percentages), its just fascinating seeing the actual data for me at least. I really don't care if someone spends *tons* of money on the game, just looking at the drop rates is interesting.

    Though I can see some people using this as a way to bash gachas.

    Ever have those times where if you open a gash to fast it feels like it's repeating itself ?
    like if you spam key the ctrl + left mouse button and it goes something like this < 1000hp RE , 1000hp RE , 1000hp RE > pause.... dumbfounded look ...changes channel and moves to another spot pauses... right click open < camping glove blue, camping glove green, pass, camping boot (m) > and the person next to you opens one box and screams super fantastico ! flaunting ultra rare armor ......sourface

    pfft ill show that box !
    buys 200 moar!
    and you end up with 180 potions/passes/junk items you dont need/want
    VeylaineRadiant Dawnpawcalypse
  • BuffalosBuffalos
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    edited December 10, 2018
    Should one really trust Mabi's #s?
    I mean remember 90% repair rate?
    If these numbers were copy/pasted from Korea, where lying about paid gacha rates is illegal, then yes we should really be trusting these numbers.
    This armor set... Why isn't it a drop in the game? Will we be getting comparable armor in game with the new content update?
    We might get armor with similar stats in the future through crafting, but it sure as hell won't have any of the set effects this stuff has. Gotta get those whales somehow.

  • THICCthighssavelivesTHICCthighssavelives
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    Y'all should read this article. It's a good read. https://toucharcade.com/2015/09/16/we-own-you-confessions-of-a-free-to-play-producer/
    Time passed, Free to Play became a thing. I went from company to company. Each time, every new project became less and less about how we can do cool things, and more about how we can track and target users to get the most whales possible, boost chart position and retain users to shove as many ads on them as possible.
  • KensamaofmariKensamaofmari
    Mabinogi Rep: 34,525
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    Y'all should read this article. It's a good read. https://toucharcade.com/2015/09/16/we-own-you-confessions-of-a-free-to-play-producer/
    Time passed, Free to Play became a thing. I went from company to company. Each time, every new project became less and less about how we can do cool things, and more about how we can track and target users to get the most whales possible, boost chart position and retain users to shove as many ads on them as possible.

    Oh, companies will do this more now, now that there's no hard regulation available. No regulation on selling people's private data to marketing/advertising companies.
  • asnscorpioasnscorpio
    Mabinogi Rep: 2,280
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    I think....the repair ratio's for the NPC's were the number you input into the statistics. It was never the % ratio repair rates. This was discussed years ago and no matter what...you could never receive 100% repair ratio until perfect repair came out.

    The only NPC I know that has perfect repair option that doesn't give 100% base is Fergus for weapons that I know of...not sure about the other category of weapons....Also Partner's don't have that option even though it seems like they do. So read carefully as it's just a higher price for a higher ratio repair rate that is not 100%. It states at times that "Perfect Repair is repairing it all at once at the NPC's % repair rates" Which is a bit deceiving...it's kind of a repair all feature in the perfect repair that is not....Perfect repair?

    Statistics......like predicting the lottery....Because so many items are reused and repeated so many times the % base is actually less than what is given. If the gatchapon did not reshuffle then the percent bases would be pretty set and you can spend X amount of NX and that would guarantee you get a tier prize.

    I'm quite confused why they didn't offer something that guarantee's a higher % tier prize after so many boxes are opened.
  • KensamaofmariKensamaofmari
    Mabinogi Rep: 34,525
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    asnscorpio wrote: »
    I think....the repair ratio's for the NPC's were the number you input into the statistics. It was never the % ratio repair rates. This was discussed years ago and no matter what...you could never receive 100% repair ratio until perfect repair came out.

    The only NPC I know that has perfect repair option that doesn't give 100% base is Fergus for weapons that I know of...not sure about the other category of weapons....Also Partner's don't have that option even though it seems like they do. So read carefully as it's just a higher price for a higher ratio repair rate that is not 100%. It states at times that "Perfect Repair is repairing it all at once at the NPC's % repair rates" Which is a bit deceiving...it's kind of a repair all feature in the perfect repair that is not....Perfect repair?

    Statistics......like predicting the lottery....Because so many items are reused and repeated so many times the % base is actually less than what is given. If the gatchapon did not reshuffle then the percent bases would be pretty set and you can spend X amount of NX and that would guarantee you get a tier prize.

    I'm quite confused why they didn't offer something that guarantee's a higher % tier prize after so many boxes are opened.

    You mean like guaranteed bundles we so often see on mobile games?
  • asnscorpioasnscorpio
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    Quite a handful of games other than mobile games have them.
  • pawcalypsepawcalypse
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    I remember complaining/making a theory that the gacha prizes changed rates after a few hours and after a few days of its entire run in the shop. A GM actually had to clarify it wasn't like that at all. Yet I still have that gut feeling it is like that, regardless if the current percentages are shown.
    RNG = random nuisance got'cha
  • GTCvActiumGTCvActium
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    pawcalypse wrote: »
    I remember complaining/making a theory that the gacha prizes changed rates after a few hours and after a few days of its entire run in the shop. A GM actually had to clarify it wasn't like that at all. Yet I still have that gut feeling it is like that, regardless if the current percentages are shown.
    RNG = random nuisance got'cha

    I think there used to be an old post explaining why people get bouts of bad rolls and other times an epic string of successes. Basically Mabi used an old RNG generator method that while overall created the desired ratios had moments of bias. It was represented by a patterned image, newer methods do not have this and are represented by a nearly uniform image.

    Another thing to remember is that given in any situation, any possibility that has even a slight probability of occurring will occur 100% if given enough time. Though I also think that if you consider that people don't really rank items in the same tier as the ones they really want, they ARE getting items that are in the same tier (within the gacha's own tier system) as the stuff they wanted. This is why I usually space out my gacha opening, if I get a bad bout, I just wait a bit, if I get a string of amazing successes, I just press on.