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Math or something for Bingo Event

[Deleted User][Deleted User]
Mabinogi Rep: 2,045
edited September 9, 2017 in General Chat
Hi, here's a fast overview of Roulette Bingo Event. This post is only to help you decide whether or not you want to put effort into the event.
( Not going to explain the whole event, read the main post for that )

How many coins can you get a day? 53.

How many coins can i get from just logging in daily? 100.
How many coins does it take on average to finish a board? 95ish
Maximum # of coins obtainable: 1060 (Actually less, because of maintenance)

Can I get a squirrel bag without afking? If your lucky.
Bingo = chance of coupon fragment for detective squirrel bag.
Full Bingo = 1 coupon fragment for detective squirrel bag.

Is the bag coupon tradable? Yes.
Is the bag coupon fragment tradable? Yes.
Is the bag tradable? No, only drop tradable.

Example Simulation (28 of 20000 trials exceeded 255 coins and were cut out to shrink plot)
36fff38faf.png
This graph should give you a better idea of how many coins you may end up using to complete a board.
Edit: This is a simulation table, Left is the # of occurrences, Bottom is # of Bingo Coins used to fill Board.

Edit 2: More numbers because hot-time free stamps:

How many coins to get 24 unique numbers? 70ish <- ideal for maximizing benefit of the free stamps
How many coins to get 23 unique numbers? 58ish <- ideal for bag (assuming you get no coupon piecesfrom normal bingo)
How many coins to get 22 unique numbers? 49ish
How many coins to get 21 unique numbers? 43ish
How many coins to get 20 unique numbers? 38ish
How many coins to get 20 unique numbers? 34ish

(Since you only get 6 free stamps, if you just want to get the bag its probably ideal to strive for 2 remaining stamps before using the hottime free stamps)
  1. Was this post helpful?43 votes
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       53% (23 votes)

Comments

  • RedetsuRedetsu
    Mabinogi Rep: 1,190
    Posts: 67
    Member
    um..oh dear..
    Hardmuscle
  • HardmuscleHardmuscle
    Mabinogi Rep: 13,035
    Posts: 2,554
    Member
    edited September 10, 2017
    I can't read.

    Vimi
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User]
    Mabinogi Rep: 2,045
    Spy wrote: »
    How many coins can you get a day? 53.

    How many coins can i get from just logging in daily? 100.
    You get 100 coins total from logging in daily, during the event period.
    Event is 20 days long.
    5*20 = 100.
  • HardmuscleHardmuscle
    Mabinogi Rep: 13,035
    Posts: 2,554
    Member
    Spy wrote: »
    Spy wrote: »
    How many coins can you get a day? 53.

    How many coins can i get from just logging in daily? 100.
    You get 100 coins total from logging in daily, during the event period.
    Event is 20 days long.
    5*20 = 100.
    Oh,... and you're asking me (a person who used to get 100 coins an hour in prior versions of this event) if that's worth it?

    I plead the fifth amendment. :)

  • YellowBinYellowBin
    Mabinogi Rep: 1,320
    Posts: 52
    Member
    edited September 7, 2017
    so many acorns, that squirrel will get fat.
    HardmusclePeloiAtaraxiz
  • lceCreamlceCream
    Mabinogi Rep: 2,205
    Posts: 199
    Member
    edited September 7, 2017
    You're assuming that every number has an equal chance to be picked

    Nice work though. Very helpful
    Hardmuscle
  • HardmuscleHardmuscle
    Mabinogi Rep: 13,035
    Posts: 2,554
    Member
    edited September 7, 2017
    lceCream wrote: »
    You're assuming that every number has an equal chance to be picked

    If Murphy's Law has its way (and it probably will). It'll take a lot longer than before to get the last number.

    /killmenow

  • [Deleted User][Deleted User]
    Mabinogi Rep: 2,045
    lceCream wrote: »
    You're assuming that every number has an equal chance to be picked

    Nice work though. Very helpful

    Ask a few day which number is giving them trouble on the bingo board. If you find that everyone is having different numbers that they cant get, then its probably uniform probability.
    Also it's not like this is a gacha, there is probably no "S" tier number :^)
  • ArjuneArjune
    Mabinogi Rep: 16,890
    Posts: 1,752
    Member
    I'm hoping they have some weekend hot times that will give out like 10 extra coins per day each weekend...
    Hardmuscle
  • HardmuscleHardmuscle
    Mabinogi Rep: 13,035
    Posts: 2,554
    Member
  • ErorservErorserv
    Mabinogi Rep: 2,695
    Posts: 154
    Member
    Now I'm not saying the answer is multiboxing. But maybe it's multiboxing.
    Hardmuscle
  • HardmuscleHardmuscle
    Mabinogi Rep: 13,035
    Posts: 2,554
    Member
    @xRoflcopter :D
    Now I'm not saying the answer is multiboxing. But maybe it's multiboxing.
    cw6aHU9.jpg

    ErorservcourtneyyAtaraxizAell
  • IyasenuIyasenu
    Mabinogi Rep: 24,265
    Posts: 2,887
    Member
    I wonder how the math changes if you make it so you get the last number on your board by using the Stamp you get from the weekend hot times.
    Hardmuscle
  • CheeezburgerCheeezburger
    Mabinogi Rep: 600
    Posts: 6
    Member
    edited September 13, 2017
    The probability distribution should be basically that of the classic "coupon collector's problem". Therefore, if you just use the stamp from weekend hot times, you're just lowering n by the amount of stamps you need to use on average, assuming a not-bugged rng.
    Formula: E(n) = n * sum(i, n, (1/n))
    Therefore to get all 25 just via coins: ~95.40
    24: ~90.62
    so you save about 5 coins, on average.

    EDIT: Actually I got the math wrong, I made the incorrect assumption that you would be trying to get a new number out of a smaller total possibility range. Therefore, if you were to work numbers out, you would probably save more than 5 because you have a greater chance of repeating numbers than my incorrect assumption.
  • SiodhanSiodhan
    Mabinogi Rep: 3,825
    Posts: 315
    Member
    assuming a not-bugged rng
    Making a looot of assumptions there.
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User]
    Mabinogi Rep: 2,045
    edited September 13, 2017
    The probability distribution should be basically that of the classic "coupon collector's problem". Therefore, if you just use the stamp from weekend hot times, you're just lowering n by the amount of stamps you need to use on average, assuming a not-bugged rng.
    Formula: E(n) = n * sum(i, n, (1/n))
    Therefore to get all 25 just via coins: ~95.40
    24: ~90.62
    so you save about 5 coins, on average.

    The formula is summation of (25/n)^-1 from 1 to 25. which is 95.4
    and for 24 numbers, same formula but from 2 to 25, or ~70.4.

    This makes sense because when your down to your last number you can expect a 1/25 chance to get your last number, thus you should average 25 coins to get the last number
  • CheeezburgerCheeezburger
    Mabinogi Rep: 600
    Posts: 6
    Member
    Yeah, I realized I made a stupid incorrect assumption when I read over my post after posting.
  • JoeybahnJoeybahn
    Mabinogi Rep: 710
    Posts: 10
    Member
    edited September 15, 2017
    I've used over 100 coins now to get 1 last number on my bingo board.
    Found out the coins only stack to 50 but yeah i think i've used 113 or so just to get the number 6. and nothing still.
    f6ce301251.jpg
  • iMattxCiMattxC
    Mabinogi Rep: 1,075
    Posts: 64
    Member
    Joeybahn wrote: »
    I've used over 100 coins now to get 1 last number on my bingo board.
    Found out the coins only stack to 50 but yeah i think i've used 113 or so just to get the number 6. and nothing still.
    f6ce301251.jpg

    How strange, every board I've been filling, 6 has been the last number to fill. Also where do you live, I graduated high school with a joey bahn.
  • ShaeliShaeli
    Mabinogi Rep: 3,430
    Posts: 359
    Member
    The spinner is definitely not perfectly average, random, and fair. I have two numbers left on my third board, and I have hit one of the four adjacent numbers on at least a third of my last 40 coins used. This goes beyond RNG spite, this is outright mockery.
    Peloi