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I posted in your post, but it's pending approval. My friend had this problem as of Valentines day and found the fix.
1)uninstall Mabinogi and Nexon Launcher, and scrub the appdata for both games. Apparently Mabi will keep trying to update to G24 Part 1, and due to the version difference, you can't connect.
2)Your antivirus might've pulled a crazy on you, so just stop the program from running and see if you can connect.