Hellkaizer wrote: »It's simple math.
We count the items from the jar.
80 items are listed on the main page (correct me if I'm wrong)
1 - ( ( 1 - x ) ^ y )
X being the number of items.
Y the number you open.
Or simple
(1/80)^1= 0.01
That's assuming every item is weighted the same, which it isn't. The formula gets crazy when it needs to account for that.
And that's where the Combinations with adjusted binomial distribution comes in. Basically, what u have to do is come up with a combinations formula counting the more common items multiple times to account for the alterations in weight to the droprate. From there we can make adjustments based on samples we get from players and zero in on the actual weights on the items. Once we have the weights of the items to a semi-accurate degree we can do another Combinations formula to find the number of combinations that contain a black bag in any given sample size and render that into a percentage. I linked to the same thing in the last droprate discussion, so here it is again, the Wikipedia page for Combinations. I tried to figure this out last time with the Caraseks bag, but it became far beyond me when I got to finding the number of k-combinations accounting for various hiccups like combinations containing multiple instances of a repeat that was added to the list for weight adjustment. Someone said last time that Binomial distribution was the answer, but it was a bit beyond anyone that visited the Carasek thread.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combination
It's simple math.
We count the items from the jar.
80 items are listed on the main page (correct me if I'm wrong)
1 - ( ( 1 - x ) ^ y )
X being the number of items.
Y the number you open.
Or simple
(1/80)^1= 0.01
Bronzebreak wrote: »For once I didn't feel like reading through the thread, since I discuss this enough in my History of Games class.
As it stands, there's a general lack of advertising for this game, and I feel like a lot of players at this point are 'lifers', and seeing as how the game is 14 years old in NA and the target audience seems to be young adults.....