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The bag has a 1/10,000 drop rate. Why 1/10,000? 1/1,000 is too common and 1/100,000 is too uncommon. Even if you open 10,000 boxes you have a 64% chance of obtaining the bag. Therefore if you completely fish up 100% boxes with all of the 3150 bait you're given, you have a 28% chance to get the bag. I could be wrong about 1/10,000 but, it has to be between 1/1,000 and 1/10,000 but the latter seems more reasonable for DevCat standards.