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Neat we can see the droprates now.

VeylaineVeylaine
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edited December 6, 2018 in General Chat
wtpFa2J.jpg
http://mabinogi.nexon.net/News/Announcements/1/00JCX (click on the button as shown above)
not sure how the rng works since the highest percentage a single item has is 1.67%
So I am ASSUMING it adds into a total outcome. Most of the rare items (10*.11)+(8*.13)+(4*.15)(4*.17)+(4*.24) made about 3.6% and the trade able elite passes 18x1.67 made about a third of the total outcome.
EDITED SOME MATH WAS A BIT OFF
again I like to restate that I am just guessing on how the drop rate works, we have the data now but not entirely sure how it works though.


Thanks to Helsa for adding all the sums, the total outcome being 111.61% they estimated with that the items are are about 7/8 of what they are listed or so if we're going by total outcome rng I suppose
Twelie

Comments

  • GretaGreta
    Mabinogi Rep: 33,895
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    edited December 6, 2018
    Veylaine wrote: »
    the trade able elite passes 19x1.67 made about a third of the total outcome.

    Yeah, I have come to that assumption just few minutes ago too. This just encouraged me to not buy gacha anymore.
    Thank you Nexon, very cool.
    Twelie
  • VeylaineVeylaine
    Mabinogi Rep: 3,350
    Posts: 264
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    edited December 6, 2018
    Greta wrote: »
    Veylaine wrote: »
    the trade able elite passes 19x1.67 made about a third of the total outcome.

    Yeah, I have come to that assumption just few minutes ago too. This just encouraged me to not buy gacha anymore.
    Thank you Nexon, very cool.

    edited a bit its actually 18 passes and 10 items that are .11%
    Passes still count for pretty close for a third, still considering if thats how the RNG works.
  • PlatinaKokiPlatinaKoki
    Mabinogi Rep: 4,930
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    Veylaine wrote: »
    Greta wrote: »
    Veylaine wrote: »
    the trade able elite passes 19x1.67 made about a third of the total outcome.

    Yeah, I have come to that assumption just few minutes ago too. This just encouraged me to not buy gacha anymore.
    Thank you Nexon, very cool.

    edited a bit its actually 18 passes and 10 items that are .11%
    Passes still count for pretty close for a third if thats how it works im assuming.

    Even if it doesn't sound right by normal math rules, it sounds right in Nexon Math.
    GretaBlissfulkill
  • AlshianAlshian
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    Well I already have the abyss dragon armor set so i will give this a pass, but that absorption along with attack speed effect is....tempting.....

    Nah still a pass.
  • RelinquishedRelinquished
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    I bought a bunch of Gacha.. Got a Celtic Warhammer thingy.. was trying to put in my inventory.. then the SERVER shut down..

    Luckily.. I was holding the item so it won't be dropped.. unlike the Jewel that goes with it. XD
  • VeylaineVeylaine
    Mabinogi Rep: 3,350
    Posts: 264
    Member
    Veylaine wrote: »
    Greta wrote: »
    Veylaine wrote: »
    the trade able elite passes 19x1.67 made about a third of the total outcome.

    Yeah, I have come to that assumption just few minutes ago too. This just encouraged me to not buy gacha anymore.
    Thank you Nexon, very cool.

    edited a bit its actually 18 passes and 10 items that are .11%
    Passes still count for pretty close for a third if thats how it works im assuming.

    Even if it doesn't sound right by normal math rules, it sounds right in Nexon Math.

    I mean there could be an analytical math that would deal with this kind of data. I only have a HS diploma and an associates so certainly not a math I ever took. Though I suppose thats what you mean by normal math rules?
  • TwelieTwelie
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    Member
    Yikes. I wasn't planning to buy this gacha, but those rates are still a bit concerning. I wouldn't mind lower tier prizes, but having a third of them be elite passes?
  • PlatinaKokiPlatinaKoki
    Mabinogi Rep: 4,930
    Posts: 491
    Member
    Veylaine wrote: »
    Veylaine wrote: »
    Greta wrote: »
    Veylaine wrote: »
    the trade able elite passes 19x1.67 made about a third of the total outcome.

    Yeah, I have come to that assumption just few minutes ago too. This just encouraged me to not buy gacha anymore.
    Thank you Nexon, very cool.

    edited a bit its actually 18 passes and 10 items that are .11%
    Passes still count for pretty close for a third if thats how it works im assuming.

    Even if it doesn't sound right by normal math rules, it sounds right in Nexon Math.

    I mean there could be an analytical math that would deal with this kind of data. I only have a HS diploma and an associates so certainly not a math I ever took. Though I suppose thats what you mean by normal math rules?
    Maybe.
    I just meant that Mabi seems to defy general percentage-based outcomes. Or how, even at 100%, certain things in the game can still fail.
    Veylaine
  • FullBucketPimpDaddyFullBucketPimpDaddy
    Mabinogi Rep: 820
    Posts: 22
    Member
    edited December 6, 2018
    I thought you guys bought gachas for the passes and pots????? I'm sure you guys will love having 40% of your 300$ turned into passes and 50% trash. At least you'll get a cool bag, right?
    TwelieVeylaineImaizumiIyasenu
  • VeylaineVeylaine
    Mabinogi Rep: 3,350
    Posts: 264
    Member
    edited December 6, 2018
    Veylaine wrote: »
    Veylaine wrote: »
    Greta wrote: »
    Veylaine wrote: »
    the trade able elite passes 19x1.67 made about a third of the total outcome.

    Yeah, I have come to that assumption just few minutes ago too. This just encouraged me to not buy gacha anymore.
    Thank you Nexon, very cool.

    edited a bit its actually 18 passes and 10 items that are .11%
    Passes still count for pretty close for a third if thats how it works im assuming.
    Even if it doesn't sound right by normal math rules, it sounds right in Nexon Math.

    I mean there could be an analytical math that would deal with this kind of data. I only have a HS diploma and an associates so certainly not a math I ever took. Though I suppose thats what you mean by normal math rules?
    Maybe.
    I just meant that Mabi seems to defy general percentage-based outcomes. Or how, even at 100%, certain things in the game can still fail.
    ah ok so thats what you mean.
  • HelsaHelsa
    Mabinogi Rep: 5,180
    Posts: 814
    Member
    Veylaine wrote: »
    wtpFa2J.jpg

    not sure how the rng works since the highest percentage a single item has is 1.67%
    So I am ASSUMING it adds into a total outcome. Most of the rare items (10*.11)+(8*.13)+(4*.15)(4*.17)+(4*.24) made about 3.6% and the trade able elite passes 18x1.67 made about a third of the total outcome.
    EDITED SOME MATH WAS A BIT OFF
    again I like to restate that I am just guessing on how the drop rate works, we have the data now but not entirely sure how it works though.

    Can you post the link to the data source please.
  • VeylaineVeylaine
    Mabinogi Rep: 3,350
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    Member
    edited December 6, 2018
    Helsa wrote: »
    Veylaine wrote: »
    wtpFa2J.jpg

    not sure how the rng works since the highest percentage a single item has is 1.67%
    So I am ASSUMING it adds into a total outcome. Most of the rare items (10*.11)+(8*.13)+(4*.15)(4*.17)+(4*.24) made about 3.6% and the trade able elite passes 18x1.67 made about a third of the total outcome.
    EDITED SOME MATH WAS A BIT OFF
    again I like to restate that I am just guessing on how the drop rate works, we have the data now but not entirely sure how it works though.

    Can you post the link to the data source please.
    Updated the post
    http://mabinogi.nexon.net/News/Announcements/1/00JCX#tab2
    Idk if it will work for you im using windows 10 on chrome/firefox just go to the announcement page until you see those buttons and click on the Gachapon list & Rates. button.
  • HelsaHelsa
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    Thanks got it!

    I quickly pumped it into excel:
    There are 153 items. A straight sum of them yields 111.61%, which is impossible. So this is the result of rounding error because they say the odds listed are rounded for the display. Since the largest and smallest are reported to the same number of decimal places one would expect the amount of over estimation to more-or-less counteract the amount of under estimation. Yet it's not even close. The fact that the difference from 100% is off, almost, by a factor of 1/8th is curious. You might have to take many of the reported percentages as actually being around 7/8 of what is stated. Yay.
    Veylaine
  • VeylaineVeylaine
    Mabinogi Rep: 3,350
    Posts: 264
    Member
    edited December 6, 2018
    Helsa wrote: »
    Thanks got it!

    I quickly pumped it into excel:
    There are 153 items. A straight sum of them yields 111.61%, which is impossible. So this is the result of rounding error because they say the odds listed are rounded for the display. Since the largest and smallest are reported to the same number of decimal places one would expect the amount of over estimation to more-or-less counteract the amount of under estimation. Yet it's not even close. The fact that the difference from 100% is off, almost, by a factor of 1/8th is curious. You might have to take many of the reported percentages as actually being around 7/8 of what is stated. Yay.

    neat thanks a lot. Updated First post.
  • HelsaHelsa
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    Sorry for the double post:

    The best price per shot is with the 45 shots box. It costs 57,500 NX. This yields a price per shot of 1277+7/9 NX.

    Take, say, the White Heavenly Grace Wings. They have a chance of 0.11%. The average number of tries to statistically be CERTAIN to get them is 100% / 0.11% = 909+1/11 tries.

    Therefore Nexon expects you to expend 1277+7/9 NX per try times 909+1/11 tries which is 1,161,616+16/99 NX to get the wings.

    Here's the question: if you could just buy them directly for that much, would you?
  • GaeaGaea
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    I thought you guys bought gachas for the passes and pots????? I'm sure you guys will love having 40% of your 300$ turned into passes and 50% trash. At least you'll get a cool bag, right?

    Worse than a nylon bag. HA! XD
    BronzebreakTwelie
  • nevyn25nevyn25
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    edited December 6, 2018
    ok, hi, the most terrible mathematician in the world here... can someone, like, simplify these numbers and explanations to say 3rd grade level? bc I really don't understand all these different numbers. numbers really aren't my strong suit
  • GaeaGaea
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    nevyn25 wrote: »
    ok, hi, the most terrible mathematician in the world here... can someone, like, simplify these numbers and explanations to say 3rd grade level? bc I really don't understand all these different numbers. numbers really aren't my strong suit

    $300 gets you a digital nylon bag.
    Iyasenu
  • HelsaHelsa
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    Helsa wrote: »
    Sorry for the double post:

    The best price per shot is with the 45 shots box. It costs 57,500 NX. This yields a price per shot of 1277+7/9 NX.

    Take, say, the White Heavenly Grace Wings. They have a chance of 0.11%. The average number of tries to statistically be CERTAIN to get them is 100% / 0.11% = 909+1/11 tries.

    Therefore Nexon expects you to expend 1277+7/9 NX per try times 909+1/11 tries which is 1,161,616+16/99 NX to get the wings.

    Here's the question: if you could just buy them directly for that much, would you?

    Yes, I just quoted myself.

    I had an additional thought about this. Since 1,000 NX = 1 USD then Nexon expects on average people to pay $1,161.62 for the White Heavenly Grace Wings. I just checked the add bots in Dunby square. They're selling 10M gold @ 13.50 USD. So 10M gold * $1,161.62/$13.5 = 860,459,259 gold.

    If someone is selling White Heavenly Grace Wings for more than that, go buy the gacha. If less then pay in gold.
    AlexisEUWolfsinger
  • GaeaGaea
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    Wings are dead.