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## Neat we can see the droprates now.

http://mabinogi.nexon.net/News/Announcements/1/00JCX (click on the button as shown above)

not sure how the rng works since the highest percentage a single item has is 1.67%

So I am

**ASSUMING** it adds into a total outcome. Most of the rare items (10*.11)+(8*.13)+(4*.15)(4*.17)+(4*.24) made about 3.6% and the trade able elite passes 18x1.67 made about a third of the total outcome.

~~EDITED SOME MATH WAS A BIT OFF~~
again I like to restate that I am just guessing on how the drop rate works, we have the data now but not entirely sure how it works though.

Thanks to Helsa for adding all the sums, the total outcome being 111.61% they estimated with that the items are are about 7/8 of what they are listed or so if we're going by total outcome rng I suppose

## Comments

Yeah, I have come to that assumption just few minutes ago too. This just encouraged me to not buy gacha anymore.

Thank you Nexon, very cool.

edited a bit its actually 18 passes and 10 items that are .11%

Passes still count for pretty close for a third, still considering if thats how the RNG works.

Even if it doesn't sound right by normal math rules, it sounds right in Nexon Math.

Nah still a pass.

Luckily.. I was holding the item so it won't be dropped.. unlike the Jewel that goes with it. XD

I mean there

couldbe an analytical math that would deal with this kind of data. I only have a HS diploma and an associates so certainly not a math I ever took. Though I suppose thats what you mean by normal math rules?I just meant that Mabi seems to defy general percentage-based outcomes. Or how, even at 100%, certain things in the game can still fail.

Can you post the link to the data source please.

http://mabinogi.nexon.net/News/Announcements/1/00JCX#tab2

Idk if it will work for you im using windows 10 on chrome/firefox just go to the announcement page until you see those buttons and click on the Gachapon list & Rates. button.

I quickly pumped it into excel:

There are 153 items. A straight sum of them yields 111.61%, which is impossible. So this is the result of rounding error because they say the odds listed are rounded for the display. Since the largest and smallest are reported to the same number of decimal places one would expect the amount of over estimation to more-or-less counteract the amount of under estimation. Yet it's not even close. The fact that the difference from 100% is off, almost, by a factor of 1/8th is curious. You might have to take many of the reported percentages as actually being around 7/8 of what is stated. Yay.

neat thanks a lot. Updated First post.

The best price per shot is with the 45 shots box. It costs 57,500 NX. This yields a price per shot of 1277+7/9 NX.

Take, say, the White Heavenly Grace Wings. They have a chance of 0.11%. The average number of tries to statistically be CERTAIN to get them is 100% / 0.11% = 909+1/11 tries.

Therefore Nexon expects you to expend 1277+7/9 NX per try times 909+1/11 tries which is 1,161,616+16/99 NX to get the wings.

Here's the question: if you could just buy them directly for that much, would you?

Worse than a nylon bag. HA! XD

$300 gets you a digital nylon bag.

Yes, I just quoted myself.

I had an additional thought about this. Since 1,000 NX = 1 USD then Nexon expects on average people to pay $1,161.62 for the White Heavenly Grace Wings. I just checked the add bots in Dunby square. They're selling 10M gold @ 13.50 USD. So 10M gold * $1,161.62/$13.5 = 860,459,259 gold.

If someone is selling White Heavenly Grace Wings for more than that, go buy the gacha. If less then pay in gold.