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Masterplan hot weekend buff not working??

kevtheboskevthebos
Mabinogi Rep: 400
Posts: 4
Member
in Bugs and Glitches
Noticed that the enchant succes rate +10% isnt applying?
Only noticed AFTER i failed to apply a Rank 1 ES 6 times in a row... so thats 6 pot wasted

Comments

  • LoomyOfPiLoomyOfPi
    Mabinogi Rep: 1,375
    Posts: 157
    Member
    edited January 12, 2023
    Here's the thing... Mabinogi percentages have been debated since launch. Some of it comes from a misunderstanding of the game's mechanics, and some of it comes from a misunderstanding how to do the math to calculate probability. Also some players don't understand the law of large numbers. If you play long enough, you'll experience something that should rarely happen.

    But even taking all of that into consideration, I have seen some things with an extremely low chance of happening actually happen multiple times within a short period of time. Should that have happened once or twice in all the time I've played, I could just attribute to chance, but there have been just enough of such events to make me wonder whether it really is just a case of the law of large numbers, or if something is off with the game's calculator.

    As for your specific scenario, we need to take into consideration that there are multiple factors that affect success rates of Enchant. A character with 1500 INT has a maximum of 29% chance of succeeding on a rank 1 enchant scroll, using the best magic powder. I'm assuming that +10% chance means it goes up 10 points and not actually 10% (i.e. it goes to 39 instead of 31.9). With a 39% chance, your odds are not good, but with six enchant protection pots, your goal looks to be within reach.

    At that rate, there is still a 61% chance of failure each attempt. If my math is correct (and it very well might not be), the odds you'd fail six times are 0.61^6, or just over 5%. As low as THAT is, it means there was about a 1:20 chance of it occurring. That's still high enough for us not to jump to the conclusion it's the game -- or the event bonus wasn't activated. And if your character's INT is below 1500, the odds of failing six consecutive times goes up.

    Again, I do suspect something is askew with the randomizer, but there just aren't enough facts here to support that is what happened to you, or that the powers that be forgot to add the success rate bonus.

    But those who oversee the game DO make mistakes from time to time, and sometimes things don't work on the main server as smoothly as they did on the test server. If they did forget to add the bonus, I hope that for those who need it, they remembered to add it to today's maintenance, because I don't see them taking the game down to fix it this final week of the event.