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% system

AmazingTwistAmazingTwist
Mabinogi Rep: 100
Post: 1
Member
in General Chat
How does the percent on enchants / special upgrades work? They do not seem balanced what so ever. Like failing 30 times at 50% in a row does not seem legit at all.

Comments

  • DangerousDitchDangerousDitch
    Mabinogi Rep: 1,010
    Posts: 27
    Member
    Gambler's fallacy I suppose. If you suppose at the beginning you have 30 attempts at 50%, then you can calculate that your odds of never succeeding are near impossible. But once you attempt lets say 10 times, all fails, your odds of the 11th roll are still 50%. With enough samples (attempts) the numbers will eventually average out (the law of large numbers), but there is no force that causes the results to average out sooner rather than later. Possibly much later. Like, I bet a lot of people blow up step 6 special upgrades by thinking "I failed the last time, 45% is almost 1 in 2... so this second one should probably succeed! But it's still 45. It'll still roll whatever it feels like.
    JJ[Deleted User]Sherri
  • JJJJ
    Mabinogi Rep: 5,400
    Posts: 500
    Member
    edited August 26, 2017
    BumbDitch wrote: »
    Gambler's fallacy I suppose. If you suppose at the beginning you have 30 attempts at 50%, then you can calculate that your odds of never succeeding are near impossible. But once you attempt lets say 10 times, all fails, your odds of the 11th roll are still 50%. With enough samples (attempts) the numbers will eventually average out (the law of large numbers), but there is no force that causes the results to average out sooner rather than later. Possibly much later. Like, I bet a lot of people blow up step 6 special upgrades by thinking "I failed the last time, 45% is almost 1 in 2... so this second one should probably succeed! But it's still 45. It'll still roll whatever it feels like.

    Everyone take notes and listen to this bumb ditch. The % in Mabinogi are not fake, no matter how much they seem so. I would also like to add that getting bad luck on rolls is often more memorable and have a larger impact making it seem to have happened more often.

    The only exception is the windmill in Tir Chonaill. Those % are rigged for sure.
    [Deleted User]
  • SherriSherri
    Mabinogi Rep: 18,715
    Posts: 2,818
    Member
    RNGesus hates us all, basically.

    My friends and family always said I was a really lucky person. This game proves I'm not. lol
    IDC though.
    I think if you show you are angry, RNGesus hates you more.