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Important PSA: 100% repair is (kinda) VERY GOOD!
Comments
It differs from person to person because its a probability, not fixed intervals. This is literally elementary school math, 98% means that 98 times out of 100, the thing will happen. In our case its the opposite, since the rate of SUCCESS is 98%, the rate of FAILURE is 2%. This means it will happen 2 times out of 100. If something that happens 2 times in 100 attempts, that means in order for it to happen 10 times requires 500 attempts. I have no idea where you got 1/50 from. If you mean the 50% chance for special upgrades from your example, that would be 50/100 or 1/2. That means that 1 in every 2 attempts will be a failure. If you are referring to something from MY numbers, it would be 1/49 for 98%, not 1/50. You are fundamentally misunderstanding the entire concept behind statistical probability.
Also, I never said the fail rate had anything to do with the number of times you have repaired before apart from that if you repair 500 points at 98%, statistically, 10 of them will fail. I never said that the fail rate changes in any way relative to the repair count, I simply stated what the statistical probability dictated for a given number of points, 500, based on a given percentage, 98%. 98% of 500 is 490, 2% of 500 is 10. These are facts. Go grab a calculator, seriously, because thats what I did. Enter 0.98x500, then 0.02x500. Tell me if you dont get 490, followed by 2. 98% success across 500 points does, in fact, make for 10 lost points.
At least I can go on using my second-rate weapons to clear out trash mobs in everyday content and not have to worry about replacing them every 2-3 months.
If you want proof Im right, read stuff, do it. If you just want to be lazy, take my word for it when I say that the decay rate of weapons, exactly as I calculated, means a given weapon will last more then a year at 98% even if its your general use weapon, even longer if you use it sparingly. This lines up just fine with the decay rate everyone is experiencing, nothing anyone has discribed so far goes outside an acceptable range for statistical probability. My numbers discribe the decay rate perfectly, you are simply underestimating just how much 500 points worth of repairs actually is and how long it takes to repair that many times.
If you want to try to claim my math is wrong, do it with math, not with "I dont think so" magic and baseless claims of things like adjusted probability based on the number of visitors to that npc that day. If you do not have math to back up such a claim or math that proves mine wrong, then you are, in fact, wrong. Facts are facts, numbers are numbers, math is math. If you think Im wrong, check my math yourself BEFORE trying to call me out, because trust me, I have checked my own math, as far as the calculations in the original post, time and time again by this point because I keep needing to refrence it.
Im sorry, but 99% does not equal 1/1000, it equals 1/100. Here is a link to the very wiki page that chart claims to be refrencing to get the 1/1000.
http://wiki.mabinogiworld.com/view/Blessing
It clearly says 99%, and nowhere does it say or even so much as slightly suggest its 99.9% and not just flat 99%.
The one that quoted you was directed at you. 99% success, or 1% fail, does not make for 1/1000, only 1/100.
I don't see where you got that from. Do tell.
The asterisk saying, "*Repair fails every 1000[...]" is an extension of the title, "[Number] of fails expected *".
Chart shows about 10 fails. 10 fails in 1000 attempts is 1/100, or 99% success rate. Hope this clarifies
We have a savant here.
Ok, I see, I misunderstood what one of the footnote lines meant. Your saying its 10/1000 at 99%, which is right. What I DONT see though, is where you accounted for the cost of getting and upgrading a new one when the old one breaks too many times to be reasonably used anymore. If you look over my numbers again you will see that I added an estimation for the cost of obtaining and upgrading a new crk from clean to replace the one that will eventually become broken until Its unusable.
Im going to assume thats sarcasm, just more of this...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ad_hominem
Why would you have to when the money you save is more than enough to buy a platinum hammer/crystal hammer/Ferghus hammer instead? 2.1m you save from a blessed 97% is more than enough to buy any of those in the current economy. Not to mention that when boxes come out with repair protection potions, people have sold those for 500k in Alexina. Bring that repair rate up higher and you save even more. So my point still stands that with weapons such as CRK or anything higher, it isn't worth it to shell out that much money for a 100% repair. It is by far more economical to go for lower rates and fix it back up. The ONLY times I could think of to go for 100% repair is if you cannot find plat hammers, which I have been finding all over the place, or if you want to keep the durability above 20, which is simply nitpicking at that point anyways.
What Blor is talking about mainly references the origins of the % symbol. It's the mathematical form of the word "percent", splitting that up gives "per cent". Now we should all know cent = century, and one of those is 100 years long. Let's theoretically put this into that terminology; 15 times per century = 15%, 67 boys per century = 67%.
Moving it back to this, what you're saying is it will occur once per millenium (that's 1000 years), not per century (100), hence your figures provide 0.1%.
I am quite aware what % means? But where have I stated that any repair is 0.1%? The above guys have cleared up the confusion no problem so I don't understand what you're going on about now.
Well, it appears I was late to the party. My apologies.
Because over that 8.7mil figure that is the cost of 500 points of repair, you lose 10 max dura, plat hammers are 1.5-2mil each, 10 hammers is 15-20mil. You only save 8.7mil per 10 points lost by doing 98% instead of 100%, but the cost to recover those points via hammer is 15-20mil. That isnt sustainable. I guess it IS better then replacement using no hammers, but that still makes 100% better for your bank account overall. Even at 99% instead of 98%, it only even comes up the same if your hammers cost on the lower end. You would be saving 17.4mil instead of 8.7mil, but the cost of enough hammers to reverse all that would be the aforementioned 15-20mil. Also, as someone somewhere pointed out, the supply of hammers is not endless since their event only. There is no guarantee that they wont go up in price or that they will even be available at all.
Just follow my chart. Repairing blessed at 97% leads to saving 21.3m for repairing 1000 points, while failing 10.1 points. This means each failed point is worth roughly 2.1m. Which is, by your words, clearly enough for a plat hammer. You seem to be calculating repairing without blessings, which no smart player would actually do if the weapon is worth anything at all. This is also only considering the relatively low cost rate of CRKs. There are plenty of weapons that have repair rates at a much higher cost due to enchants.
Yes platinum hammer supply is not infinite, but the demand is also not all that high. With blessings, VIP, music step buff, and for the CRK's case, durability loss reduction, along with final hit not taking durability, it takes quite a bit of time before you actually use a significant amount of durability. Not to mention that if you have a problem with fails, you can just use weapons that are much more disposable for most content, where failing repairs don't even matter. That reduces the repairs you would do even further.
-double checks wiki- wait... So you've been able to get 99% our of 97 npcs this whole time? Jesus christ, iv wasted so much gold on edern... I thought blessing only gave +1%.
So in conclusion then, (97% + blessing) > 100% > (98% + blessing), meaning as long as you pay attention and don't accidentally repair at 97 unblessed, that 1% difference that I was unaware of the existence of was literally what broke the math just enough for it to even out damn close to exactly, with a very slight favor toward 97%, which I didn't even give a chance as a candidate. So in effect, If you hate searching shops or things like hammers, go ahead and use 100% because its not a HUGE overall difference, but otherwise use blessed 97 and just pretend 98 doesn't exist.