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Black bag

Comments

  • HellkaizerHellkaizer
    Mabinogi Rep: 11,305
    Posts: 1,066
    Member
    Blortad wrote: »
    Hellkaizer wrote: »
    Ofelia wrote: »
    It's simple math.

    We count the items from the jar.
    80 items are listed on the main page (correct me if I'm wrong)

    1 - ( ( 1 - x ) ^ y )

    X being the number of items.
    Y the number you open.

    Or simple

    (1/80)^1= 0.01

    That's assuming every item is weighted the same, which it isn't. The formula gets crazy when it needs to account for that.

    And that's where the Combinations with adjusted binomial distribution comes in. Basically, what u have to do is come up with a combinations formula counting the more common items multiple times to account for the alterations in weight to the droprate. From there we can make adjustments based on samples we get from players and zero in on the actual weights on the items. Once we have the weights of the items to a semi-accurate degree we can do another Combinations formula to find the number of combinations that contain a black bag in any given sample size and render that into a percentage. I linked to the same thing in the last droprate discussion, so here it is again, the Wikipedia page for Combinations. I tried to figure this out last time with the Caraseks bag, but it became far beyond me when I got to finding the number of k-combinations accounting for various hiccups like combinations containing multiple instances of a repeat that was added to the list for weight adjustment. Someone said last time that Binomial distribution was the answer, but it was a bit beyond anyone that visited the Carasek thread.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combination

    And that's math that's leagues too complex for me.

    I'm unsure why people aren't selling the bags though, for a newer person sure the inv is nice but the 30m+ price tag goes a lot farther. I mean you could buy a carsek bag and still have 10m for whatever you wanted.
    Jazmyn
  • VeylaineVeylaine
    Mabinogi Rep: 3,850
    Posts: 348
    Member
    edited September 15, 2018
    Rhey wrote: »
    Veylaine wrote: »
    Sheena wrote: »
    The black bag is a lie, I have tried to get that damn bag for 3 possible events now and still cant get it.
    Not only that, but I have never seen ANYONE getting the bag and brag about it on the forums, which is very suspicious... I can bet my thunder bird that the chances of getting that bag is below 1%

    I rest my case.
    gosickdetective.png?resize=537%2C373
    Well it has been achieved
    http://forums.mabinogi.nexon.net/discussion/14973/anyone-gotten-a-black-bag-yet/p1
    Deol wrote: »
    cVISeYX.jpg

    I got it on my second day fishing.
    Arnaut wrote: »
    I'm a lucky man

    GOzuiZ1.png

    http://forums.mabinogi.nexon.net/discussion/14943/fishing-event/p1
    Actually got the bag
    https://m.imgur.com/oJj9jmD
    still fishing-all i really want are a mountain of hs seeds...

    Server?
    @Rhey these were just posted on the pages ( as you can see both are in general so no specific server ) you can ask the players themselves for the servers they hail from. I put the links to both the threads that these three comments came from.

    EDIT: unless I misunderstood your question?
  • RheyRhey
    Mabinogi Rep: 10,130
    Posts: 1,499
    Member
    Veylaine wrote: »
    unless I misunderstood your question?

    Seems U have my friend.

    I was asking whether U have the acute knowledge of knowing what server the Screens hailed from 2 spare me the leg work.
  • VeylaineVeylaine
    Mabinogi Rep: 3,850
    Posts: 348
    Member
    edited September 15, 2018
    Rhey wrote: »
    Veylaine wrote: »
    unless I misunderstood your question?

    Seems U have my friend.

    I was asking whether U have the acute knowledge of knowing what server the Screens hailed from 2 spare me the leg work.

    well they didn't post which server they're from lol so no, you have just about as much clue as I do of where they are from.
  • CrimsọnCrimsọn
    Mabinogi Rep: 63,645
    Posts: 8,619
    Member
    edited September 17, 2018
    deleted, leaving the forums.
    Veylaine
  • BlortadBlortad
    Mabinogi Rep: 2,190
    Posts: 250
    Member
    I wonder whatl happen first, r1 fishing or a black bag. Currently I just reached r6.
  • OfeliaOfelia
    Mabinogi Rep: 1,500
    Posts: 35
    Member
    I agree.

    The probability that Nexon setting the values of all items equally the same are slim.

    However, I tired to adjust the values
    After opening 400 jars using binomial theorem probability [ b(x; n, P) – nCx * Px * (1 – P)n – x ] to find the % rate of the bag seemed fruitless.

    So, I thought about using chaos theory for the unpredictability ..... thoughts ?
    Jianto
  • BlortadBlortad
    Mabinogi Rep: 2,190
    Posts: 250
    Member
    edited September 16, 2018
    If u did the Binomial distribution for combinations thing adjusting for weights correctly, thats awesome, and the main obstacle at that point is we need a bunch of ppl to contribute results in a fixed format so we can use it to generate combinations. My idea for the caraseks bag before I realized I couldnt manage the math with much accuracy was to use sets of 10. So you would open 10 consecutive boxes, record what u got from it, and count that as 1 possible result for a combination of 10. The problem is the sample size because wer dealing with something so complex with lots of variables. In order to get any realistic level of accuracy we need massive sample sizes. Pretty much like 1/4 of the games players or so would have to record what was in every box they opened for a few thousand boxes and report it here for us to use to compare to various possible chance weights. We could get within a reasonably ballpark of what wer looking for with a somewhat smaller sample size, but if stories of opening thousands of bags and never even hearing about one are true, we may be dealing with odds so low that no one player could possibly provide enough of a sample size to actually get close to correct. If we get a few ppl helping with samples, I could keep track of mine also and post them here. We dont necessarily need everyone to track and report every single one they open, but the more u can manage the better.

    Basically if the odds end up being something like 1/5000, then of course u cant get an accurate measure from only 400 boxes. Just counting the odds of the bag itself, if it happens to be that low, would mean you would need a size of more then 5000 to be at all accurate, and realistically, you should have more then that by a good bit so u can be sure its not actually even lower odds then that.
    Jianto
  • CrimsọnCrimsọn
    Mabinogi Rep: 63,645
    Posts: 8,619
    Member
    edited September 17, 2018
    deleted, leaving the forums.
  • BlissfulkillBlissfulkill
    Mabinogi Rep: 24,105
    Posts: 2,779
    Member
    edited September 16, 2018
    Ofelia wrote: »
    It's simple math.

    We count the items from the jar.
    80 items are listed on the main page (correct me if I'm wrong)

    1 - ( ( 1 - x ) ^ y )

    X being the number of items.
    Y the number you open.

    Or simple

    (1/80)^1= 0.01

    Drop percentages aren't equalized.

    giphy.gif
    GretaCrimsọnChaosShadow
  • JiantoJianto
    Mabinogi Rep: 1,105
    Posts: 25
    Member
    edited September 16, 2018
    Hellkaizer wrote: »
    Blortad wrote: »
    Hellkaizer wrote: »
    Ofelia wrote: »
    It's simple math.

    We count the items from the jar.
    80 items are listed on the main page (correct me if I'm wrong)

    1 - ( ( 1 - x ) ^ y )

    X being the number of items.
    Y the number you open.

    Or simple

    (1/80)^1= 0.01

    That's assuming every item is weighted the same, which it isn't. The formula gets crazy when it needs to account for that.

    And that's where the Combinations with adjusted binomial distribution comes in. Basically, what u have to do is come up with a combinations formula counting the more common items multiple times to account for the alterations in weight to the droprate. From there we can make adjustments based on samples we get from players and zero in on the actual weights on the items. Once we have the weights of the items to a semi-accurate degree we can do another Combinations formula to find the number of combinations that contain a black bag in any given sample size and render that into a percentage. I linked to the same thing in the last droprate discussion, so here it is again, the Wikipedia page for Combinations. I tried to figure this out last time with the Caraseks bag, but it became far beyond me when I got to finding the number of k-combinations accounting for various hiccups like combinations containing multiple instances of a repeat that was added to the list for weight adjustment. Someone said last time that Binomial distribution was the answer, but it was a bit beyond anyone that visited the Carasek thread.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combination

    And that's math that's leagues too complex for me.

    I'm unsure why people aren't selling the bags though, for a newer person sure the inv is nice but the 30m+ price tag goes a lot farther. I mean you could buy a carsek bag and still have 10m for whatever you wanted.
    Blortad wrote: »
    If u did the Binomial distribution for combinations thing adjusting for weights correctly, thats awesome, and the main obstacle at that point is we need a bunch of ppl to contribute results in a fixed format so we can use it to generate combinations. My idea for the caraseks bag before I realized I couldnt manage the math with much accuracy was to use sets of 10. So you would open 10 consecutive boxes, record what u got from it, and count that as 1 possible result for a combination of 10. The problem is the sample size because wer dealing with something so complex with lots of variables. In order to get any realistic level of accuracy we need massive sample sizes. Pretty much like 1/4 of the games players or so would have to record what was in every box they opened for a few thousand boxes and report it here for us to use to compare to various possible chance weights. We could get within a reasonably ballpark of what wer looking for with a somewhat smaller sample size, but if stories of opening thousands of bags and never even hearing about one are true, we may be dealing with odds so low that no one player could possibly provide enough of a sample size to actually get close to correct. If we get a few ppl helping with samples, I could keep track of mine also and post them here. We dont necessarily need everyone to track and report every single one they open, but the more u can manage the better.

    Basically if the odds end up being something like 1/5000, then of course u cant get an accurate measure from only 400 boxes. Just counting the odds of the bag itself, if it happens to be that low, would mean you would need a size of more then 5000 to be at all accurate, and realistically, you should have more then that by a good bit so u can be sure its not actually even lower odds then that.

    I'm not a mathematician (I'm a IT guy) but always interesting to know the maths behind games

  • HellkaizerHellkaizer
    Mabinogi Rep: 11,305
    Posts: 1,066
    Member
    Jianto wrote: »
    Hellkaizer wrote: »
    Blortad wrote: »
    Hellkaizer wrote: »
    Ofelia wrote: »
    It's simple math.

    We count the items from the jar.
    80 items are listed on the main page (correct me if I'm wrong)

    1 - ( ( 1 - x ) ^ y )

    X being the number of items.
    Y the number you open.

    Or simple

    (1/80)^1= 0.01

    That's assuming every item is weighted the same, which it isn't. The formula gets crazy when it needs to account for that.

    And that's where the Combinations with adjusted binomial distribution comes in. Basically, what u have to do is come up with a combinations formula counting the more common items multiple times to account for the alterations in weight to the droprate. From there we can make adjustments based on samples we get from players and zero in on the actual weights on the items. Once we have the weights of the items to a semi-accurate degree we can do another Combinations formula to find the number of combinations that contain a black bag in any given sample size and render that into a percentage. I linked to the same thing in the last droprate discussion, so here it is again, the Wikipedia page for Combinations. I tried to figure this out last time with the Caraseks bag, but it became far beyond me when I got to finding the number of k-combinations accounting for various hiccups like combinations containing multiple instances of a repeat that was added to the list for weight adjustment. Someone said last time that Binomial distribution was the answer, but it was a bit beyond anyone that visited the Carasek thread.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combination

    And that's math that's leagues too complex for me.

    I'm unsure why people aren't selling the bags though, for a newer person sure the inv is nice but the 30m+ price tag goes a lot farther. I mean you could buy a carsek bag and still have 10m for whatever you wanted.
    Blortad wrote: »
    If u did the Binomial distribution for combinations thing adjusting for weights correctly, thats awesome, and the main obstacle at that point is we need a bunch of ppl to contribute results in a fixed format so we can use it to generate combinations. My idea for the caraseks bag before I realized I couldnt manage the math with much accuracy was to use sets of 10. So you would open 10 consecutive boxes, record what u got from it, and count that as 1 possible result for a combination of 10. The problem is the sample size because wer dealing with something so complex with lots of variables. In order to get any realistic level of accuracy we need massive sample sizes. Pretty much like 1/4 of the games players or so would have to record what was in every box they opened for a few thousand boxes and report it here for us to use to compare to various possible chance weights. We could get within a reasonably ballpark of what wer looking for with a somewhat smaller sample size, but if stories of opening thousands of bags and never even hearing about one are true, we may be dealing with odds so low that no one player could possibly provide enough of a sample size to actually get close to correct. If we get a few ppl helping with samples, I could keep track of mine also and post them here. We dont necessarily need everyone to track and report every single one they open, but the more u can manage the better.

    Basically if the odds end up being something like 1/5000, then of course u cant get an accurate measure from only 400 boxes. Just counting the odds of the bag itself, if it happens to be that low, would mean you would need a size of more then 5000 to be at all accurate, and realistically, you should have more then that by a good bit so u can be sure its not actually even lower odds then that.
    I'm not a mathematician (I'm a IT guy) but always interesting to know the maths behind games

    I understand the concepts but not the numbers, and tbh 1/500 isn't bad for an mmo droprate. Which is why I find it hard to believe the bag is anywhere near that.
  • GTCvActiumGTCvActium
    Mabinogi Rep: 7,125
    Posts: 661
    Member
    Guys guys the math for this is simple: Someone else will get it. That is all.
  • HellkaizerHellkaizer
    Mabinogi Rep: 11,305
    Posts: 1,066
    Member
    GTCvActium wrote: »
    Guys guys the math for this is simple: Someone else will get it. That is all.

    No it's 50/50, you either get it or you don't.
  • MaiaMaia
    Mabinogi Rep: 7,170
    Posts: 902
    Member
    Hellkaizer wrote: »
    GTCvActium wrote: »
    Guys guys the math for this is simple: Someone else will get it. That is all.

    No it's 50/50, you either get it or you don't.

    100% chance someone already got it.
  • IAAWIAAW
    Mabinogi Rep: 2,285
    Posts: 131
    Member
    edited September 17, 2018
    Maia wrote: »
    Hellkaizer wrote: »
    GTCvActium wrote: »
    Guys guys the math for this is simple: Someone else will get it. That is all.

    No it's 50/50, you either get it or you don't.

    100% chance someone already got it.

    99.9% chance that person isn't you.
    VeylaineJiantoXiokun
  • Gaby5011Gaby5011
    Mabinogi Rep: 5,730
    Posts: 705
    Member
    IAAW wrote: »
    Maia wrote: »
    Hellkaizer wrote: »
    GTCvActium wrote: »
    Guys guys the math for this is simple: Someone else will get it. That is all.

    No it's 50/50, you either get it or you don't.

    100% chance someone already got it.

    99.9% chance that person isn't you.

    99.8% chance that person doesn't want it and will try to sell it to someone who also doesn't want it and just wants to sell it at a higher price.
    SherriIAAW
  • HellkaizerHellkaizer
    Mabinogi Rep: 11,305
    Posts: 1,066
    Member
    Gaby5011 wrote: »
    IAAW wrote: »
    Maia wrote: »
    Hellkaizer wrote: »
    GTCvActium wrote: »
    Guys guys the math for this is simple: Someone else will get it. That is all.

    No it's 50/50, you either get it or you don't.

    100% chance someone already got it.

    99.9% chance that person isn't you.

    99.8% chance that person doesn't want it and will try to sell it to someone who also doesn't want it and just wants to sell it at a higher price.

    hey that's me!
  • MizukoMizuko
    Mabinogi Rep: 3,020
    Posts: 297
    Member
    I wound up getting this instead. I usually leave the game on, so I can focus on important work stuff.

    QYefRL8.jpg
    Maia
  • BronzebreakBronzebreak
    Mabinogi Rep: 3,730
    Posts: 489
    Member
    Mizuko wrote: »
    I wound up getting this instead. I usually leave the game on, so I can focus on important work stuff.

    QYefRL8.jpg

    Not AS great as a Black Bag (unless you already have one), but it gives you up to 10 free slots on any item bags.
    You may also be able to use it on merchant bags, increasing your sales area and actually giving you 11 free slots if you use it on any of the 11x11 bags.