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13567

Anyone gotten a black bag yet?

Comments

  • SylviaWolfeSylviaWolfe
    Mabinogi Rep: 3,310
    Posts: 342
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    Impiously wrote: »
    The bag has a 1/10,000 drop rate. Why 1/10,000? 1/1,000 is too common and 1/100,000 is too uncommon. Even if you open 10,000 boxes you have a 64% chance of obtaining the bag. Therefore if you completely fish up 100% boxes with all of the 3150 bait you're given, you have a 28% chance to get the bag. I could be wrong about 1/10,000 but, it has to be between 1/1,000 and 1/10,000 but the latter seems more reasonable for DevCat standards.

    So uh, what's the source on those quick maths?

    TheNyanCat
  • ShouKShouK
    Mabinogi Rep: 4,735
    Posts: 824
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    It's only 6 days and already this many fish traps.

    QKohq2J.jpg

    I'm planning to open all my traps on the last day. It will definitely kill my inventory lol Ego owners should be happy though seeing all those gazillion gems I am planning to drop that day :p
    courtneyyGaby5011offwithyourheads
  • SheenaSheena
    Mabinogi Rep: 5,515
    Posts: 381
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    b2b48776fccbb433351f587c44b2c5d45608ea04_hq.gif

    Pretty sure that the chance is 0,01%, but im not surprised

    But I dont care anymore! I never wanted that stupid bag anyway!...

    sample_af9114c379d321dab14caff5e824b40b.jpg
    SaiAstralBlue
  • SiodhanSiodhan
    Mabinogi Rep: 3,825
    Posts: 315
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    MRW I get another useless 5cm non-diamond, regular gem powder, any type of potion or craft material
    3LY8DmC.gif
  • SaiSai
    Mabinogi Rep: 8,785
    Posts: 675
    Member
    edited January 25, 2018
    Sheena wrote: »
    b2b48776fccbb433351f587c44b2c5d45608ea04_hq.gif

    Little does Takamura know, the black bag has been behind him all along.
    SheenaWolfandWolfShadoenajee508Darkpixie99VioletBoyoffwithyourheadsMizukiHayamaCrimsọn[Deleted User]and 5 others.
  • GretaGreta
    Mabinogi Rep: 51,805
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    What bag...? There's bag?
  • EllisyaEllisya
    Mabinogi Rep: 5,525
    Posts: 485
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    edited January 25, 2018
    people are mistaken. There's no such bag :^)

    Perhaps... only pure minded person can see the bag.
  • UnisexUnisex
    Mabinogi Rep: 1,760
    Posts: 57
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    Maybe the bag has things inside of it, that we just arent suppose to see.
  • Gaby5011Gaby5011
    Mabinogi Rep: 5,965
    Posts: 714
    Member
    Impiously wrote: »
    The bag has a 1/10,000 drop rate. Why 1/10,000? 1/1,000 is too common and 1/100,000 is too uncommon. Even if you open 10,000 boxes you have a 64% chance of obtaining the bag. Therefore if you completely fish up 100% boxes with all of the 3150 bait you're given, you have a 28% chance to get the bag. I could be wrong about 1/10,000 but, it has to be between 1/1,000 and 1/10,000 but the latter seems more reasonable for DevCat standards.

    So in theory, I should get one with my 4 characters I'm fishing with... Cool. Shame it takes forever for 2 of them though... :/
  • nevyn25nevyn25
    Mabinogi Rep: 4,135
    Posts: 667
    Member
    only those who wish to find the bag... find it, not use it.... will be able to get it.
  • WolfandWolfWolfandWolf
    Mabinogi Rep: 5,900
    Posts: 786
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    nevyn25 wrote: »
    only those who wish to find the bag... find it, not use it.... will be able to get it.

    Do we have to do this while looking into a mirror or other reflective surface? Is this why this is an ICE fishing event?
  • ShadoeShadoe
    Mabinogi Rep: 3,090
    Posts: 241
    Member
    WolfandWolf wrote: »
    nevyn25 wrote: »
    only those who wish to find the bag... find it, not use it.... will be able to get it.

    Do we have to do this while looking into a mirror or other reflective surface? Is this why this is an ICE fishing event?

    First you must run Peaca backwards without using magic or pots, sacrifice another god to Cichol while standing on one hand, and take the Mirror Witch to the prom while being an actual incubus, then you may, MAY, have a chance at getting the bag (as long as you don't want to use it).
    LadameFairyvoiceWolfandWolfRadiant DawnSaiJazmyntreasurehunty[Deleted User]AstralBluenajee508
  • ImpiouslyImpiously
    Mabinogi Rep: 225
    Posts: 6
    Member
    Gaby5011 wrote: »
    Impiously wrote: »
    The bag has a 1/10,000 drop rate. Why 1/10,000? 1/1,000 is too common and 1/100,000 is too uncommon. Even if you open 10,000 boxes you have a 64% chance of obtaining the bag. Therefore if you completely fish up 100% boxes with all of the 3150 bait you're given, you have a 28% chance to get the bag. I could be wrong about 1/10,000 but, it has to be between 1/1,000 and 1/10,000 but the latter seems more reasonable for DevCat standards.

    So in theory, I should get one with my 4 characters I'm fishing with... Cool. Shame it takes forever for 2 of them though... :/

    That's not how probability works.
    WolfandWolfTheNyanCat
  • Gaby5011Gaby5011
    Mabinogi Rep: 5,965
    Posts: 714
    Member
    Impiously wrote: »
    Gaby5011 wrote: »
    Impiously wrote: »
    The bag has a 1/10,000 drop rate. Why 1/10,000? 1/1,000 is too common and 1/100,000 is too uncommon. Even if you open 10,000 boxes you have a 64% chance of obtaining the bag. Therefore if you completely fish up 100% boxes with all of the 3150 bait you're given, you have a 28% chance to get the bag. I could be wrong about 1/10,000 but, it has to be between 1/1,000 and 1/10,000 but the latter seems more reasonable for DevCat standards.

    So in theory, I should get one with my 4 characters I'm fishing with... Cool. Shame it takes forever for 2 of them though... :/

    That's not how probability works.

    I know I'm well aware.
  • ChibisaiChibisai
    Mabinogi Rep: 2,470
    Posts: 285
    Member
    edited January 28, 2018
    There was I think one person on Mari that actually got it but allegedly sold it for 15m in shop (I wasn't there to see)... when there were parties buying for 25m-35m+
  • foussiremixfoussiremix
    Mabinogi Rep: 1,175
    Posts: 88
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    What if the bag doesn't exist :o
  • RheyRhey
    Mabinogi Rep: 10,175
    Posts: 1,499
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    edited January 29, 2018
    Chibisai wrote: »
    There was I think one person on Mari that actually got it but allegedly sold it for 15m in shop (I wasn't there to see)... when there were parties buying for 25m-35m+

    Yea I herd...I'm not buying dat story tho. Anybody can open with a shop with click-bait title 2 troll peeps with a highly sought item pretending it sold @ major undercut prices to trigger desperate peeps. :o

    I'll believe it when I see more definitive proof of such an insane act. :*
    TheNyanCat
  • OpalthiraOpalthira
    Mabinogi Rep: 7,595
    Posts: 943
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    Theres two people in my discord with one.
    Its a tradeable coupon.
  • ArogwenArogwen
    Mabinogi Rep: 1,025
    Posts: 26
    Member
    I've opened nearly 1000 traps (item fishing pole and trashing anything but diamonds gem-wise since I already have multiple pets overflowing with 10cm gems) and have yet to see the black bag.
  • FayeKaibaFayeKaiba
    Mabinogi Rep: 10,670
    Posts: 886
    Member
    Rhey wrote: »
    Chibisai wrote: »
    There was I think one person on Mari that actually got it but allegedly sold it for 15m in shop (I wasn't there to see)... when there were parties buying for 25m-35m+

    Yea I herd...I'm not buying dat story tho. Anybody can open with a shop with click-bait title 2 troll peeps with a highly sought item pretending it sold @ major undercut prices to trigger desperate peeps. :o

    I'll believe it when I see more definitive proof of such an insane act. :*

    I noted the person who was selling the bag for 15m. They noted me back saying they sold it in their shop. However I know the person, they are are a returning player who I was in their guild in 2012. Could have just not fully known the price of the bag and not paid attention to party signs.